Iraq attacks, we must be losing

03.27.2003

I took a day off from blogging and took a step back from the news. On the one hand, the news is now getting somewhat boring. The flash'n'dash type of operation that the CNN pundits expected hasn't come to be. It's a real war now.

But I'm fascinated by the journalist punditry. Primarily, because I'm surprised at just how little these folks seem to know about military matters. If you get all your news from the BBC or CNN you'd think we're losing the war. And badly.

After all, this is the era of war entertainment, not military history. A standard war movie lasts maybe two or three hours. More than that, and you have a miniseries. That's a long war. We've been fighting for just over a week now. No miniseries has ever lasted that long. Boy, things must be bad.

At a military press conference yesterday, reporters asked why the advance of our troops seemingly just stopped. We'd raced 300 miles in three days, and then suddenly halted. The colonel in charge of the briefing was dumbstruck. "Well," he explained, "our troops had to stop to sleep. They've been on the move nonstop for days." There you have it, our army isn't invincible. Sometimes it has to sleep.

I watched the British commander give a press conference late tonight. He had to field questions about how surprised he must be that things are going so poorly. Did things not go according to plan? The poor guy just sort of scratched his head; I don't think he even understood the question. Hadn't all the generals said this would take a long time? Hadn't they all pointed out they were now only 50 miles from Baghdad? (And ahead of schedule, mind you.) I could imagine the wheels spinning in his head: "How do I summarize all my lifetime experience of tactical doctrine in a 60 second answer to this boob?"

CNN's freaking out about a column of vehicles moving south out of Baghdad to engage American forces. The Iraqis are attacking? Things must be bad! Um, no. The Iraqis - from all accounts - are moving in the open as solid column formations. I know enough to know you shouldn't do that. First, because we have air superiority and can pick them off as they move. Second, because moving in solid column against defensive positions isn't an attack, it's suicide. You never, ever want to put yourself in position to receive enfilade fire.

A smaller column tried to break out of Basra. It was absolutely obliterated. No British losses. Yesterday, an Iraqi brigade shattered itself against forward marine elements (reports vary from 150-500 dead Iraqi soldiers). No marines reported killed in action.

Personally, I'm happy they're moving out of Baghdad to attack our troops. Defending fixed positions is easier than attacking them. They wanna give themselves the hard job? Fine. Standard military doctrine calls for a 3-to-1 numerical superiority in an attack on fixed positions. But each of our brigades has the strength of a single Iraqi division. If two Iraqi divisions are moving against two American divisions (a total of eight brigades), then the Iraqis are substantially outnumbered (4-to-1). And we have air superiority. Oh, and we also have better equipment.

Let 'em attack. That's two less divisions to fight inside Baghdad.

Posted by Miguel at 03:36 AM

Comments

Bravo, Miguel! You have encapsulated eloquently what I have been trying to say for a week or more: it's war. When asked, I have been telling people that I wouldn't be surprised if the war lasted well over a year... even as many as six (when you count in my own conspiracy theories that Iraq is the second step in campaign that will include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, et al). People seem shocked, but like you pointed out...the talking heads have been using terminology like "long and protracted" for months now. Seems obvious to me.
Your blog is cutting me off...see next entry.

Love,
Micah

Posted by: Micah at March 27, 2003 11:38 PM

So anyways...
I am curious to know what your take on the whole embedded journalists thing is. It seems problematic to me. The brutalities and atrocities inherent in combat may be swallowable to people like you or myself who have read comic books and have a cynical, semi-educated outlook on the world. But what about the naked masses? I am not sure if our culture as a whole can digest the image of a psychological breakdown from one of our eighteen year old boys. Drooling and shivering in panic on international airwaves, I see a snapped GI being quite a catalyst for panic or, at least, negative action/demonstration. Thoughts?

Love,
Micah

Posted by: Micah at March 27, 2003 11:46 PM

I'm OK w/ embedded reporters. They're slowly making the studio pundits understand what combat deployment is really like. Mostly boring, punctuated by sharp engagements of an hour or so. I've faith in most Americans. Not the bleeding-hearts, but I don't factor them in the equation once war is under way (no offense to any bleeding-hearts out there).

As to the war's duration: I don't think it'll take years. We're due to engage the RG in the next 48hrs. We'll probably push on Baghdad itself by week's end. Probably end that by month's end (minus the moping up). I don't think there are plans for any other war. I could be wrong. But best thing is to democratize Iraq and use it to filter liberal democratic ideas throughout the region.

Posted by: miguel at March 28, 2003 12:08 AM

Oh, and that column moving out of Baghdad. I was watching the evening news. In the major clash today, approximately 1,000 Iraqi troops were killed. We lost one marine. But we didn't move forward any. So I guess we're still losing the war, eh?

Posted by: miguel at March 28, 2003 12:24 AM

May I join into the discussion? I am struggling with embedded journalism. It is always journalism that is with the troops,rather one-sided. And I think it gives war a sense of a miniseries/ movietype of mood. Or the reality show. Not sure if it really represents the horrors of war accurately and in a good objective way. However, I call Salam Pax' weblog, if updated, the log of an embedded civilian. Also those web logs of journalists in Baghdad or the kurdish areas give it a different perspective.
Then again ... truth is the first casualty of war, I guess if one wants to go beyond what embedded journalists say, one has to look for more sources.

Posted by: Melli at March 28, 2003 12:56 AM

Ok, pls fill me in on this. "What's embedded reporting?"

Posted by: Steph at March 28, 2003 01:18 AM

When reporters are "embedded" within troops, and can only report from within that context & its restrictions. There are some unembedded reporters in Bhagdad - but they have to stay within Bahgdad (with an Iraqi monitor).

Posted by: lee at March 28, 2003 04:13 AM

Actually, I think embedded journalists are probably the most "accurate" of the journalists, since they're right there. I don't see why they're being "untruthful", since they're just reporting the facts as they see them. I keep wondering why journalists are so highly criticized as "unobjective" if they don't staunchly oppose the war. Is it OK to be unobjective only so long as you do it for the anti-war position? How odd.

No one seemed to complain about all the journalists in Iraq that were constantly followed around by Iraqi "minders" (who'd threaten Iraqis into giving "proper" interviews).

Posted by: miguel at March 28, 2003 01:18 PM

I think what I said came out the wrong way. As I said, I am struggling with embedded journalism, I cannot decide whether they are good or bad. I personally think they report acurately from what they know being with the troops. What is bad, in my opinion, is that it gives the impression of a war-reality show, which diminishes the impact this war has, it leaves out information, other networks/journalists provide. Like the "Stern" wrote today: Wow, what an explosion, isn't that amazing. It is one-sided, because they are only within the troops or as Lee said, they report within their context and restrictions. So it is like individually they do a good job, collectively it is one-sided. TBC

Posted by: Melli at March 28, 2003 02:11 PM

OK, yeah, I agree. I think we've run up against the limits of round-the-clock video media. Print is so much better. There have been embedded reporters before (e.g. WW2), but not so "instant". More and more I'm turning to strickly reading weblogs and "print" (online) journalism.

Posted by: miguel at March 28, 2003 02:16 PM

However, this is not to say that the journalists in Bagdad are doing a better job, as they cannot report objectively either. For 1) they are under monitoring by the Iraqis and for 2) restricted by their radius of action. So what the embedded journalists say is good, but their reporting is incomplete and one needs to look beyond their reporting to get a better picture. Which is ... what one ought to do usually.
I think my main crutch here is that you can now watch a war while sitting on the couch and eat chips. "Look, they bomb that house! Wow, what an explosion! Cool sh*t, what a bomb!"
Hope I expressed that better now.

Posted by: Melli at March 28, 2003 02:17 PM

I agree with Melli that embedded journalists don't give you the whole story; it's because they can't. They are bound by rules set out by the COs, namely that they won't report anything that the commanders consider off-topic for fear that they will be tipping the U.S. hand to the enemy. So now what we get is 'dog on a leash' journalism, which is not good reporting at all. It's great for those live shots, thought.

Posted by: david at March 29, 2003 03:58 PM

I disagree about the "dog on the leash" reporting being bad. The problem is that those reports are goin on LIVE. Surely you don't expect a reporter to say:

"The marines I'm w/ are about to attack the enemy building behind me, Kent. They're going to send a squad up to attack it from the left flank."

That's not journalism, that's possibly telling the enemy information they could use. It's a fine line, to be sure, but I completely agree that "embedded" reporters need to clear information they report.

You also can't expect the general's press briefing to outline the deailed war strategy. That just makes no sense.

Posted by: miguel at March 29, 2003 04:14 PM