Ciao!

A dangerous gambit

10.20.2003

While I think Mesa's a solid person, and has the best intentions for Bolivia at heart, I disapprove of the way he came to power. Democratic norms were broken. Essentially, this was a golpe (coup d'état) against the Goni administration. Mesa's administration's already set out to govern in essentially the same way as Goni's, offering the same solutions to the current political crisis (which stems, of course, from effects of the regional/global economic crisis). It's important to note Mesa's new cabinet, while not including members of any political party, increased the number of ministries to 15, has no female members (unless you count the female "special delegate" against corruption, raising the number of posts to 16), and only one indigenous member (w/ no portfolio). Mesa also didn't announce a Minister of Hydrocarbons (apparently, no one wants the post), which makes gas & oil reforms difficult.

I'm worried about Mesa's attempt to govern as an "outsider", w/ a clear "anti-politics" attitude, and intending to govern w/o the support of any political parties. Previous Latin American leaders who've taken this route as presidents include Peru's Fujimori and Venezuela's Chávez. Neither are shining examples of democratic governance.

Now, I'm not comparing Mesa to the latter. I'll readily admit Mesa's more ethical (and, at heart, more a democrat) than either. But he stated in his inaugural address that his legitimacy stems from "the people." Sure, this sounds great. Although history's shown that "the people" can be redefined as one wants. And the fact that society's pinned its hopes on an individual, rather than on institutions, only strengthens the tradition of caudillismo. But the real danger's that the precedent set by Mesa's rise to the presidency means two things:

First, any conflict Between Mesa and parliament is always framed in the context that "the people" are behind Mesa and support him, even w/ mobilized violence, against the "special interest" politicians. The message to parliament is: pass the laws I want, or the streets get nasty.

Second, as easily as popular sentiment put him into power, it can sweep him out as well. After all, Mesa has no more electoral legitimacy than did Goni (arguably, he has less). The message to Mesa is: you do what Solares, Evo, and Mallku want, or the streets get nasty.

This makes Mesa's government extremely fragile. And recent violence and its subsequent economic disruption make Bolivia's crisis even more acute than before. Mesa's government has tremendous promises to keep, and to keep soon. It won't take much to instigate another spiral of violence that'd end his own presidency.

This is especially true since it's clear that small, radical elements w/in Bolivian society are willing to use force, rather than democratic elections, as a means to power. And w/ external support.

The leader of a group of former Peruvian military officers admitted in a radio interview that he'd supported, both w/ equipment and personnel, the revolt in the Altiplano. Major Antauro Humala claimed close links to Quispe's MIP, and affinity for Shining Path. In a radio interview, Quispe (aka Mallku) announced a revolt to overthrow Mesa w/in 90 days. He admitted he wanted to take power, even if by force.

Posted by Miguel at 11:24 AM

Comments

Posted by: Patrick at October 20, 2003 02:21 PM

Posted by: miguel at October 20, 2003 03:43 PM