What kind of crisis?
06.18.2004The Ayo Ayo situation spurred me to write a piece for Tiempo Político, the political punditry weekly published by La Razón. It's on the minimal conditions necessary for a democratic state. I'll focus on stateness — as Linz & Stepan succinctly forumated: "No state, no democracy." I'll send it out in a day or two.
I was having a conversation w/ Steven last night, going back & forth on the issue. It dawned on me that there are two different crises going on.
First, a crisis of the national state. It's no longer clear that there exists a common vision of a Bolivian identity, much less a belief in a common nation-state. This from both the Altiplano & the "media luna" departments.
Second, a crisis of the state economic model. That is, "media luna" departments seem content (for various reasons) w/ a neoliberal economic model. They oppose the nationalization of the hydrocarbons industry or other radical measures. The Altiplano opposes a neoliberal economic model, pushing for radical measures like nationalization of hydrocarbons.
With those pressures, and a government that a priori declared its unwillingness to use force to restore order, it's only a matter of time before the entire structure unravels. Unless Mesa's government can restore the national state's authority & legitimacy soon, a separation of the country into two or more independent republics is a real possibility.
Anyhow, I'll hash this out more tonight, then send it off to Tiempo Politico. I'll post an English version here. Also, some of the data that shows different voting behavior structures by region are here & here. It's only descriptive statistics data, but I've also run some OLS models that demonstrate a marked regional difference in voting behavior.
Posted by Miguel at 04:31 PM
Comments
I think it's unfair to summarize the Occident's official political views as those of the COB and other individuals in El Alto, who engage in radicalized acts of destabilization. Also it is also unfair to summarize the Orient's official political views as those of the "Comite Civicos". I think that organization's name is such a misnomer, making it appear as if it is a noble and representative body of an entire city. Civic Committees, moreso in Tarija and Santa Cruz, are elitist organizations representing the oligarchy, agro-business elite and other members of the upperclass. They represent mainstream Santa Cruz as much as the COB represents mainstream Cochabamba or other cities where the majority want to work and live in peace.
Ask indigenous and campesino populations in the Chiquitania or market sellers in Montero whether they agree with the neoliberal model. That model has not significantly improved their lives, as they have more in common with their counterparts in the West, than they do with large producers of soybeans. Just because this model has greatly helped members of the upperclass in the Orient, does not mean that the entire region has been helped.
The COB and Comite Civico of Santa Cruz are on the extreme opposite of the spectrum. Obviously if one uses their viewpoints to summarize the unofficial and official view of the Occident and the Orient respectively, then the contrast is severe. I think the mainstream view of all of Bolivia is somewhere in the middle. Too often, it seems that the it is made to appear as if the views of the entire Andean region closely resemble of those intent on destabilizing the country.
Posted by: eduardo at June 18, 2004 07:22 PM
Obviously, I'm using some degree of hyperbole here. I'm not arguing that EVERYONE in the occidente follows the COB line (certainly not the families of the Zona Sur). Or that EVERYONE in the orient follows the comite civico line. But. My point's only that there is a substantial opinion gap between the two regions. I think it's equally unfair to ignore that.
And while you might think the comite civicos are elitist (and they are, of course), it's too easy to argue that they don't have actual grassroots level support (they do). Most public opinion is elite driven. That's a reality anywhere, at any time. It's important to listen to the mallkus & the leaders of comites civicos; they have a real power base; they can mobilize public opinion in real & tangible ways.
Posted by: miguel at June 19, 2004 12:07 PM