Bolivia's municipal elections

12.06.2004

Here's a preliminary round-up of Bolivia's municipal elections, taken primarily from El Nuevo Día. If I focus mainly on Santa Cruz, forgive me, but: A) it was the most bitterly contested race, B) it's arguably the most dynamically changing city in Bolivia today, C) it's the center of recent challenges to the central state, and D) it's the city I was born in.

In Santa Cruz, Roberto Fernández (22.9%) beat his brother, Johnny, and beat him royally. The ex-MNR, ex-mayor Percy Fernández (no relation to Roberto or Johnny), who I wish had done better, came in a close second (20.4%). The official MNR candidate, former model Desirée Bravo, led her list w/ only 7.3% of the vote. Interestingly, the "official" UCS (led by Johnny) & MIR were basically wiped out. This could prove a fatal blow to MIR, which has traditionally had a strong presence in the city (it's only significant bastion in camba territory). Also, I was surprised Roxana Sandoval did so poorly. Perhaps she shouldn't have turned down heading the official MNR list?

On the surface, it looks like a rejection of "traditional" politicians. But. More than 60% of the vote went to ex-UCS, ex-MNR, ex-NFR party lists, and nearly 80% if you include the "official" MAS & MNR candidates. It translates to: 3 council seats for Roberto's party, 3 for Vargas' (ex-NFR), 3 for Percy, and one each for MAS & MNR. If any of the parties w/ 3 seats form an alliance, they can select the major — most likely either Roberto, Percy, or Oscar Vargas. Or, they could pick a compromise candidate. Since any member of the municipal council can become mayor.

La Paz & EL Alto voted for the status quo. Current La Paz mayor Juan del Granado won an overwhelming plurality (45.8%), giving his MSM 7 of 11 seats. In short, he was re-elected. MAS took 3 seats; Doria Medina's (ex-MIR socialite & the richest man in Bolivia) UN took 1 seat. What this means is that ADN, MNR, and MIR were wiped out in the capital (all had strongholds there), w/ over-hyped Jaime Paz Pereira (son of ex-president Jaime Paz Zamorra) capturing barely 6.4% — slightly behind former police major & might-be golpista (he led the police mutiny that attacked the presidential palace in February 2003). Similarly, José Luis Paredes ("Pepe Lucho") is expected to win an absolute majority in El Alto, essentially re-electing the ex-MIR alcalde.

In Cochabamba, the winners were Gonzalo Terceros Rojas (33.9%) & Gonzalo Lema Vargas (31.2%). Although the NFR (who've held the city in a stranglehold of machine politics) was "defeated" (9.9%), Gonzalo Lema Terceros is an ex-NFR former mayor. So we'll see if anything changes.

A few of the smaller cities' reports: ADN continued its dominance in the other two camba capitals. In Trinidad (Beni's capital) w/ 46.8%, followed by MNR (17.4%). In Cobija (Pando's capital) ADN won a large plurality (36.4%), followed closely by MAR (33.2%).

In Sucre (capital of Chuquisaca & Bolivia's "constitutional" capital), the plurality winner was MBL's Aydeé Nava Andrade (28.3%). Of the major national parties, only MAS won a single seat. In Tarija, FRI (often allied w/ MIR) elected Oscar Gerardo Montes w/ a comfortable majority (52.3% of votes & 7 of 11 seats). Followed by MIR (13.8%) & MNR (10.0%).

In the Altiplano, Socialist's won a smashing majority (68.3%) in Potosí, electing ex-Pachakuti Eené Joaquino Cabrera. Oruro chose Edgar Bazán Ortega (ex-UCS), whose near-majority (39.5%) translated to 7 of 11 council seats. The erosion of the "traditional" parties was, as expected, highest in these two Altiplano cities.

What does this mean? Well, it seems that the traditional parties are still clinging to life in the east, w/ a tenacious ADN-MNR hegemony in the camba countryside. FRI-MIR-MBL also continue to hold their own among sureños & chapacos. And while eastern cities (e.g. Santa Cruz) focused on populist rhetoric, the Altiplano tilted towards more radical discourse. Cochabamba — a city I should pay much closer to attention to — has turned into a bitter fight between the rightist NFR (and its various scions) & the radical-leftist MAS.

The big winner this election? MAS. It won significant presence in several municipal governments, expanding its base well beyond the rural Chapare. At this point, the 2007 general elections seem likely to come down to a MAS leftist option, a center-right ADN option (Tuto perhaps?), and a centrist option (most likely Juan del Granado). Too early to tell, sure. But that's as good a guess as any.

Posted by Miguel at 11:47 AM

Comments

Thanks for that summary, I've been away from the internet all day. The Santa Cruz race may turn even more nasty, with so many possibilities. Maybe Johnny can finally disappear from politics after this.

I read that MAS made some noise in some of the Santa Cruz provinces, especially in la Chiquitania.

Terceros was the ex-NFR mayor, not Lema.

Posted by: eduardo at December 6, 2004 08:01 PM