Ciao!: Parties party

Parties party

03.09.2005

So there's a national government coalition again in Bolivia. Mesa's gambit paid off, and now he has the support of the "institutional" or "systemic" parties (MNR, ADN, MIR), along w/ some others (NFR, UCS, PS1). So, he has a broad multi-party, super-majority coalition that gives him almost 75% of the House of Deputies, and 70% of the Senate.

The agreement, duly signed by party leaders, was hailed as the solution to the weeks of conflict that led to Mesa's resignation offer. Lots of handshakes in parliament, followed by dancing in Plaza Murillo.

Absent from the agreement, of course, were MAS & MIP, which have signed their own agreement to remain in the opposition. Evo Morales (MAS leader) has also signed an agreement w/ Jaime Solares (COB leader) to continue pressure against Mesa's government. And FEJUVE's protests continue in El Alto, threatening the capital city below it. The Chapare roads are closed off, which also cuts Santa Cruz from the rest of the country.

We're not outta the woods yet. So. The real question is: What happens next? Yes, there's dancing in the streets. Mesa got his chance to come out on top, he bested Congress, out-maneuvered Evo, and got the masses to commit to his cause. But. What happens next?

If Mesa expects to use the moment's dramatic momentum to automatically solve the country's problems, I think he'll fail. Do the math. Assume only 1% of the population actively opposes him, of a population of 8 million, that's still 80,000. Could 80,000 topple a government? They did in October 2003.

Mesa should take the moment's opportunity, and the public announcement by the military of its support for constitutional order, and do two things: First, use his renewed personal power to strengthen the institutional authority of the state — specifically, the rule of law. Second, decrease the ability of other actors (e.g. the business sectors or middle class) to court the military by using the state's coercive apparatus, under civilian democratic control, to project the state's authority. I'm not suggesting repression; I'm arguing that citizens who support Mesa not because of who he is, but because they hope he'll prevent the country's slide into anarchy, want to see a state that can project some basic sense of legitimate authority.

There is, of course, a fine line between establishing legitimate democratic authority & the slide to despotism. But. Doing nothing to enforce basic rights (the right to property, the right to go to work, the right to travel freely) means abdicating the state's monopoly over coercion to private individuals. And that breeds anarchy, secessionism, or military intervention.

First lesson in Latin American politics: The military is always a player in domestic politics.

It should be understood, and very carefully, that Bolivia's military didn't come out in support of Mesa. No. They came out in support of "constitutional order". In so doing, they sent a clear message to Bolivia's political elite that A) they (the military) wouldn't support toppling Mesa but B) they might reconsider. The biggest leash holding the military back, is US policies against military dictatorship (the military also knows that they'll receive no backing from the OAS, Europe, and the broader international community). But if this equation changes, or if the situation inside Bolivia gets to the point where the military's willing to overcome those obstacles, then all bets are off.

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UPDATE 1: Welcome, Instareaders. If you're interested, here's come election data statistical analysis on Bolivia here & throughout. I'd also recommend Barrio Flores & MABB, for frequent Bolivian politics news/analysis. And a (growing) list of Bolivian bloggers here.

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UPDATE 2: Per reader request, I'll try to get a "Bolivian Politics for Dummies" post together in the next few days.

Posted by Miguel at 09:28 PM

Comments

Instalanche underway! As always, good to see the word getting out Miguel!

Posted by: Robert Mayer at March 13, 2005 08:34 AM

Where does Chavez fit into all this?

Posted by: David Gillies at March 13, 2005 12:03 PM

I've observed with horror how you Bolivians let a few thousand outlaws block your roads and shut down your industry.

What's the point of having a government that collects taxes if it cannot even keep the roads free?

You have a failed state. At this point, it might be wiser to split the country.

Declare an independent state in working places such as Santa Cruz, with Hong-Kong-style free trade with Argentina, Chile, Brazil and the United States.

Let everybody else starve to death in some sort of mid-90's Afghan-style communist drug-lord paradise, ruled by scum such as Morales and his ilk.

Love, from a Central American. We already let our own scum (Ortega) lord over his own paradise, Nicaragua.

Posted by: Xavi at March 13, 2005 12:03 PM

@David Gillies

(Venezuela's) Chavez has usually supported Evo Morales' MAS, but did come out in support of Mesa recently. But it's often been speculated that his support for Evo is significant, and probably based on ulterior motives. Both Evo & Chavez use pseudo-leftist populist tactics to retain their base support, confrontational politics against their oponents, and have strong ties to Castro.

@Xavi

While I can respect your right to your opinion, I'd tread lightly if I were you. If only because a policy of allowing Bolivia to revert to a 90s Afghanistan would be disastrous for the region as a whole (can we say breeding ground for guerrilla insurgencies?).

Posted by: Miguel at March 13, 2005 02:12 PM

I've only recently become aware of goings-on in Bolivia, and I have basically no understanding of the context of these events or the people/parties involved.

Is there someplace I can go on the net to get a "Bolivian Politics for Dummies" kind of introduction? :)

Posted by: Anne Haight at March 13, 2005 02:12 PM

I'll see if I can get enough time sometime this week for a "Bolivian Politics for Dummies" post. Perhaps just limited to some basic who's who (people, parties, groups), plus some general basic political history. Good idea.

Posted by: Miguel at March 13, 2005 02:51 PM

Thanks. I really should start taking more interest in this story. You write: "The military is always a player in domestic politics." That's why I live in Costa Rica.

Posted by: David Gillies at March 13, 2005 03:40 PM