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Goni in Chicago

04.21.2005

On Monday, I had the opportunity to attend two presentation by Bolivia's ex-president, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (Goni) at the University of Chicago. His first presentation was to a small audience of a half dozen graduate students (mostly anthropologists) who study Bolivia; the second presentation (about 30 mins later) was to a larger university-wide audience of about 70.

Following are his remarks, taken from my notes, but mixed together (since his presentations were actually quite similar both times), and combined into a whole (so don't read this as an entirely chronological representation of what he said):

Goni began pointing out that he didn't expect October 2003, and was rather taken by surprise (especially at how quickly things deteriorated). But he pointed out that there are two mistakes in politics: one is to blame others, the other is to blame only oneself. He also later said that Bolivia lacks "true democracy", and that many of the problems of the current administration are due to long-standing frustrations.

Thinking back to how things might've been differently, Goni considered that his biggest regret was not running for reelection in 1997. During his 1993-97 presidency, major constitutional amendments were passed that restructured Bolivia's political institutions. Because he was in a position of strength (the 1993 election gave MNR a strong mandate), he could've made changes to amend the constitution to allow for immediate reelection. He chose not to (he suggested it would look like he was making a power grab, and he wanted to avoid that, too).

He was highly critical of the "disastrous" 1997-2002 Banzer/Quiroga administration (Quiroga took over after Banzer died from cancer), which hindered or reversed many of the 1993-97 reforms. Goni's regret was that the 1997-2002 years were lost, and hindered the delicate decentralization & democratization reforms his first administration had introduced.

Banzer also suffered from an inability to impose law & order, Goni argued, because of his previous dictatorial regime & human rights record. Meanwhile, Quiroga (who Goni argued was the real power in the administration) constantly attacked the 1993-97 reforms, principally to prevent the MNR from continuing to win elections.

Talking about protests, Goni explained his surprise at the October 2003 protests. Previous protests had come before laws were passed, but dispersed once the legislature acted, implying a respect for elected representative institutions. Being used to this dynamic, he had underestimated the character of the protests that eventually ended his presidency.

Of course, he also stood by his accusation that powerful interests (he frequently cited Chavez & Colombia's FARC) were behind the "guerra del gas". And that this well-financed and organized "project" threatens Bolivia's stability. He also accused current-president Carlos Mesa of participating in a conspiracy to bring him down, and argued that he (Goni) was the last democratically elected president of Bolivia; that Mesa would likely preside over the country's division.

Economically, Bolivia is historically plagued by its own wealth. Goni spoke about the War of the Pacific (w/ Chile) and loss of territory to Chile, as well as wars w/ Paraguay & Brazil, where other valuable territory was lost & contested. Tellingly, he also warned that the war w/ Chile was precipitated by Bolivia's attempt to increase taxes on foreign investors in the Litoral. Goni frequently warned that these problems could resurface again, since Bolivia's current attempt to increase taxes on foreign oil & gas investors could trigger secession by the oil-rich departments, supported by neighboring countries that desperately need cheap oil & gas (Brazil, Argentina, Chile).

Speaking of his reforms, he spoke about how the capitalization reforms of his first administration were inspired by the problems of German reunification, especially the problems of incorporating East Germany. He defended the success of the reform for maintaining government regulations (not totally free market) while also increasing foreign investment — especially in hydrocarbons (he credits this investment w/ the discovery of vast natural gas fields).

Goni argued that Bolivia has a great opportunity for economic development because of its high-demand natural gas fields. His government had proposed using the gas export profits to fund education & health programs, as well as close the budget deficit & debt. He even suggested letting an outside agency, like the UN, run the fund.

Speaking of educational reforms, he spoke about his relationship w/ Victor Hugo Cardenas (1993-97 vice president), and their childhood experiences w/ bilingual education. Goni grew up in exile in the US from age one, and learned from this experience that it's crucial for children to learn to read, write, and do arithmetic in their native tongue.

But, Goni warned about the dangers of reform, citing Machiavelli's dictum that those who benefit from reforms are slow to realize it, while those who suffer are quick to see it (and act to stop you).

Asked about parliamentarism, Goni cited Linz's critique of presidential democracy, and suggested that parliamentary forms of government were better. He might've preferred a vote of confidence measure as a solution to the October 2003 crisis. But highlighted that in large measure the crisis was borne of frustrations w/ the previous Banzer regime, as well as the awakened expectations after electoral reforms. He also pointed to the highly polarized nature of current Bolivian politics as part of the problem.

Asked whether Evo really wants to be president or not, Goni argued that maybe Evo wanted to emulate Lula (Brazil), but this wasn't possible because of different circumstances (Lula learned patience & moderation, plus "everything works in Brazil"). But then he went back to criticize Chavez for his role in fomenting political instability (who Goni said "thinks he's the reincarnation of Simon Bolivar"), and Bush for being "committed to ignore Latin America".

Goni then went on to argue that Mesa suffers from his over-concern for popularity, which makes him unwilling to impose law & order. But in the face of groups like Mallku (who Goni labels a "terrorist", referring to the indigenous leader's previous guerrilla activities), the need to secure constitutional order is important.

Goni reminded us that he almost moved the capital to Santa Cruz in October 2003. He had retained the support of the military & police, much of the middle class, and most of the media luna. But, in the end, he wanted to avoid a potential civil war, and instead left the country. Nevertheless, he suggested that moving the capital may become necessary, since La Paz is "inviable".

The latter talk focused more on Goni's personal beliefs & some related biographic information. He claimed that he won his political "credibility" for his role in stopping hyper-inflation in 1985. But he quipped that this was mainly because when problems are so large, the solutions are simple. He also suggested that he was picked to head up this project because of his University of Chicago credentials — but no one seemed to know his degree was in philosophy, not economics.

Goni joked about his family's tradition of living in exile. His father was an idealist leftist & anti-fascist, who would spend time either in exile in the US, or as an ambassador (depending on political winds). Their family's lifetime devoted to a struggle for democracy in Bolivia led Goni to return to Bolivia, although he at first avoided politics (as a rebellion to his father).

Goni also joked that while he's often accused of being a neo-liberal, he's actually a neo-Thomist, and opposed to economic [neo-liberal] orthodoxy as the cause of so many problems. In short, he disagrees w/ the "Washington Consensus".

He also stated his personal beliefs, summarized into five things: One, equity (economic, social, political). But this requires economic growth, for which there's nothing better than the market. Two, participative, decentralized democracy. But he didn't believe in federalism, rather in strong local small-scale government that are highly participative, coupled w/ national representative governments. Three, redistribution. Principally, by providing goods to local governments, who're best able to manage them. Four, rule of law. W/ no one above the law & w/ respect for constitutional civil rights, as well as oversight over bureaucracy (for this, he was quite proud of creating the Superintendencias). Five, environmentalism. He was proud of transforming the Ministry of Planning into a Ministry of Sustainable Development, and emphasized that none of the above were possible w/o taking environmental concerns seriously.

One interesting question was about the possibility of a military coup in Bolivia, which Goni dismissed. He'd never worried about such a thing, he said, because the early Estenssoro regime (under which he served) had successfully de-fanged the military. Not a single member of the military high command had previously participated in a coup (even as a young officer assisting) — thus, no one in Bolivia's military has any experience in how to run a coup. Of course, he also pointed out that the military understood a coup would highly marginalize them (both internally & externally).

More was said, of course, but this is the gist of it, and certainly enough to chew on. Here's an mp3 recording of Goni's lecture in Chicago (ignore the first few minutes of pre-lecture banter).

Posted by Miguel at 04:02 PM

Comments

Posted by: Stephanie at April 23, 2005 01:43 AM