It's getting closer

05.20.2005

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La Paz has once more become the country's "march-o-drome", leading to temporary suspension of parliament. The legislature adjourned itself, unable to come to agreement, in the face of threats from Solares & other syndicalist leaders to take over parliament. The parliament's considering moving itself to Sucre, Bolivia's constitutional capital.

Moments before suspending itself, parliament did approve a macro law in favor of an autonomy referendum — but w/ no agreement on the question(s) to be asked or the date of the referendum. Nevertheless, Santa Cruz civic leaders have decided to go ahead — w/ or w/o central government sanction — a referendum on regional autonomy 12 August (same date as set for the first-ever direct election of prefects).

This prompted Admiral Aranda, head of the armed forces, to warn that the military would oppose any "illegal" autonomist movements (Santa Cruz civic leaders insist their actions are w/in legal, constitutional frameworks).

Ironic, of course, that the military quickly points out that it'll act against any illegal autonomist demands, but does little against syndicalist movements that openly threaten a putsch. Autonomist demands are marginally legal (though certainly w/in some general frameworks expressed since last June), but threatening to take over parliament & topple a constitutional government clearly fits any legal definition of sedition.

W/ increasing reports of armed insurgency groups, weapons missing from army installations, confiscation of significant amounts of dynamite in La Paz, and other threats, things keep looking worse.

I may need a new country shoulder patch for my jean jacket soon.

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UPDATE: As expected, Tarija civic leaders have joined Santa Cruz; they'll also have an autonomy referendum, w/ or w/o central government sanction. They're now also joined by Beni & Pando. The "media luna" is already lining up. There's already a 106-member Provisional Autonomous Assembly meeting in Santa Cruz.

Posted by Miguel at 11:34 PM

Comments

The police won't allow the social movements to close down Congress, which is why they have closed down access to the Plaza. I guess they can talk all they want, but once they act to carry out these threats, then the police can act.

I feel the same way about SCZ. They can talk all they want without violating the law, but once they act, I feel that the FFAA have the right to prevent this from happening.

Posted by: eduardo at May 23, 2005 09:14 AM

I agree. But I think an option is a "de facto" sesession, or something like Kurdistan, Kosovo, or Taiwan. So long as they don't "formerly" declare their independence, and so long as the "national" police/military don't intervene, they'll run their own affairs. It's certainly a possibility.

There's also the possibility that the OAS could "intervene" to prevent a civil war, and basically protect de facto sesession by preventing the Bolivian police/miliary from cracking down on a cruceño parliament, so long as that parliament doesn't formerly declare independence (and so long as they sell gas to the ABC countries).

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 23, 2005 12:39 PM

is it safe for me to travel in two weeks? All of a sudden I have some doubts. Yikes!

Posted by: beverly at May 24, 2005 11:03 PM