Ballots or dynamite

06.08.2005

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It's pretty obvious that Hormando Vaca Diez wants to be president. And the constitution stipulates that he would assume the presidency.

Unless Vaca Diez resigns. In which case Mario Cossío rises to the executive office. Unless he, too, resigns. In that case, the constitution stipulates that the head of the Supreme Court becomes president.

But Article 93, Section III clearly stipulates that the head of the Supreme Court only assumes the office if both the presidents of the Senate & House of Deputies are absent. Which raises an interesting question: Could the Senate elect a new president, and avoid this problem?

Granted, the Bolivian constitution is terribly flawed in this regard. Why can't the vice president assume the presidency? Because Mesa was the vice president, and the constitution doesn't allow for him to name a new vice president upon assuming the office of president.

Similarly, if the head of the Supreme Court is unacceptable, the line of succession ends there. Parliament might then elect virtually anyone, based on any criteria, using any kind of majority (simple majority, two-thirds majority, etc). It's also unclear whether a toppled Supreme Court head could then step down in favor of a new Senate president. Article 93 is one of the few vague sections of an otherwise overly-detailed constitution.

Essentially, Bolivian politics is already dancing dangerously on the edges of constitutionality.

Still, Vaca Diez has significant support. The military, implicitly, want a constitutional solution (Vaca Diez is senate president, the senate president is next in succession).

He also has the public support of MNR & MIR (most likely also ADN). That gives him 67 of 130 votes in the House of Deputies, and 17 of 27 in the Senate. That's a majority. MAS (Evo's party) & MIP (the indigenous party of Felipe Quispe) together have only 33 deputies & 8 senators.

Outvoted in parliament, they'll likely try to vote in the streets. It's ballots vs. dynamite.

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UPDATE: This latest La Razón article points to splits w/in MNR & other parties over support for Vaca Díez's presidential aspirations. But it also depends on who shows up to the legislative session (at least a few legislators are expected to miss the session) in Sucre. Thursday's vote will tell.

Posted by Miguel at 09:06 PM