Aló presidente

06.10.2005

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So, now that parliament caved in to the protesters, let's see if Bolivia chills out. Because Eduardo Rodríguez Veltzé is the end of the (succession) line. His first promise: new elections. Because what every third world, highly polarized country on the verge of civil war needs is snap elections.

Of course, all that depends on whether Solares-Evo-FEJUVE decide to suspend their protest. Otherwise, who knows. After all, they've just spent two years being taught that whenever they get violent, they get what they want.

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ADDENDUM 1: Someone asked in the comments section, but I thought I'd answer it here. Constitutionally, Rodríguez Veltzé is bound to hold new elections (based on the February 2004 version of the Constitución Política del Estado). According to Article 93, elections are required only if less than three years of the presidential term have passed; the three year mark would come up 6 August 2005 (two months away). The elections, however, would be to fill the rest of the term (through 6 August 2007). According to the laws regulating elections, they can't be announced w/ less than 180 days (three six months) of anticipation. So, Rodríguez Veltzé could announce elections tomorrow, the earliest date being 10 September December 2005 (assuming parliament rushes to approve such a bill). Strictly speaking, whoever wins that election would only govern until 6 August 2007. But Bolivia has abandoned constitutional provisions before, so electing someone for a 5-year-term seems most likely. Of course, such an election would mean an entirely new parliament as well, since Bolivia's electoral system is a "parliamentarized presidential" one. And there's no reason to believe that new elections will solve the problems, since it's clear that no party would win a simple nation-wide majority (perhaps at best 20%), meaning the newly elected parliament would select the president. Given the way things are polarized, coalition-building will remain difficult. But I still guess it'll be someone from the MNR-MIR-ADN side of the equation; rather than Evo, who despite being the only potential anti-liberal candidate, has proved incapable of making friends w/ other relevant political actors. Most likely, unable to win outright, Evo will find himself locked out of power (even if he's the front-runner) by a broad liberal coalition (MNR-MIR-ADN).

ADDENDUM 2: If/when I don't update on Bolivia, you can get an amazing newsmedia & blogger roundup from Publius Pundit (as well as regular roundups from similar situations all over the world). And, always, my blogging compatriots, Barrio Flores & MABB.

Posted by Miguel at 02:11 AM

Comments

Is agree that rushed elections aren't the greatest idea, but isn't he bound by the constitution to call elections (for at least president and vice-president) within a certain time frame. I read on BBC Mundo that this was 150 days.

Posted by: Grant at June 10, 2005 11:59 AM

I tried answering your question above.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 10, 2005 12:37 PM

Thanks you very much for the clarification.

Posted by: Grant at June 10, 2005 01:33 PM

I am confused now. The CPE says:

III. A falta del Vicepresidente hará sus veces el Presidente del Senado y en su defecto, el Presidente de la Cámara de Diputados y el de la Corte Suprema de Justicia, en estricta prelación. En este último caso, si aún no hubieran transcurrido tres ańos del período presidencial, se procederá a una nueva elección del Presidente y Vicepresidente, sólo para completar dicho período.

I think there can only be a Presidential and Vice Presidential elections. The legislative stays the way it is. Do you mean to say that there will also be legislative elections?

Posted by: MB at June 10, 2005 06:52 PM

@MB:

Good point! You're right, the CPE does literally state that the election would be only for president & vice president. But I seriously doubt the protesters want that, and not a new parliament. But that is an option.

Similarly, I think they could've had Vaca Diez & Cossio resign, then elect different presidents of the Senate & Deputies. I think that was also an option.

But it seems clear from the talk in Bolivia that Eduardo Rodriguez will preside over new general elections, including new parliamentary elections. Or am I misunderstanding something crucial?

Sadly, as long & cumbersome as the CPE is, it's often left vague in key areas. Or absolutely ignored in others. Similarly, politicians seem to not know it (or care?) from time to time.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2005 08:21 AM