Ciao!

Im from Israel from a big group who visited Bolivia the last time the protests made us stuck in El lobo guest house. But La Paz is very beautiful and bolivia has minerals etc so the economy will always be in good shape.
Can you please give links to good sites with La Paz photos? Afriend of mine will be traveling and has to reach the edificio Multicentro - can you please give a photo of it if you have?
Thanks! nice blog!

You are a brave man Miguel, to predict something like that. :-)

@Eyal:

Thanks for the compliment. And while I agree that La Paz can be quite beautiful, I'm not so optimistic about the economy, which has rarely been in good shape. For photos, try http://www.flickr.com/photos/tags/bolivia. Not sure if you'll find a picture of that particular building, though. Good luck, and shalom.

@MABB:

I'm not sure there's anything brave about my prediction, but it just seems that things have gotten so polarized, I no longer see a simple solution. But I'd like to be proven wrong.

Miguel,
I've been following the Bolivian situation, but I didn't realize that it had gotten so bad as to fall into preparations for civil war-with various factions organizing into their color-coded gangs.

Why do you think things have gotten so bad? And what are the main factors that you think led to this "pre-civil war" state? My impression is that the battle over the fossil fuels is cover for something greater.

I'd also be interested to know if you think any of the Bolivian factors are present in Iraq, simply because it's another unstable country that may be fighting over the distribution of its own fossil fuels.

@Patrick:

I'm not sure how similar the Bolivian situation is to the Iraqi one, since there are differences. But also, of course, many similarities.

I think the problem's that Bolivia was a centralized country for so long, so that leads to numerous problems. The biggest are: One, the indigenous were excluded, and now the NGOs have convinced them that it's more important to be 100% "true" indigenous (whatever that means) than live in a pluralist society. Two, the "frontier" provinces were long excluded, breeding a sort of anti-capital resentment that I knew (from growing up in the "interior" city of Santa Cruz) all too well. There were moves to secede in the past.

Now, you put those two things together w/ an electoral system that fosters local, particularistic (i.e. ethnic/regional identity) politics, and you get a highly polarized political system. On top of that, put a president (Mesa) who's the epitome of the capital city aristocrachy (white, old family, highly educated) who becomes unpopular to either of the two extremes. And since the state's authority broke down (Mesa did nothing to enforce anti-sedition laws), you get each group willing to take the law into their own hands. Once that happens, what claim does the central state still have? And if what being "Bolivian" is is up for grabs, what incentive is there for a pluralist definition to win out?

At this point, it's clear that regional autonomies are necessary. And that will include economic powers. That's what will pacify the east, which has the natural resources (not just gas, agriculture, industry, commerce). The regional autonomy might also pacify the indigenous in the west, too, if they get more "indigenous law" in their regions (e.g. the right to hang cattle thieves w/o trial). Because I'm pretty sure the westerners (were I come from) will not allow a centralist state to confiscate their natural resources to squander them & mismanage them like they did decades ago.

As a note, I'm not meaning to be harsh on the indigenous. But the kind of ethnic "identity" many of their leaders claim, is a construction. The indigenous societies that exist today in Bolivia, especially in the city of El Alto, are a globalized product, a blending of various different indigenous groups/languages/traditions w/ Spanish/European traditions. It's interesting to note that their women wear Italian bowlers hats & Korean patterned cloth dresses. Even chewing coca was, like Chinese opium, a tradition fostered by the Spaniards, to make their "Indian" subjects more docile.

Also, many of their leaders harken to "indigenous" traditions when it suits them. Killing political opponents is "communitarian justice". Men march w/ chicotes (thick bull whips) as a symbol of their status -- but also to litterally whip people back into line during marches, or to attack pedestrians at whim. But, they also enjoy airplane trips to European conferences w/ choffeurs and all expenses paid at fancy hotels.

So forgive me if I'm skeptical about those leaders' motives.

Hablando de Camisas Blancas:

www.unzaguismo.org

Agreed - a bold prediction. When was the last time there was a splitting of a nation state in Latin America? I'm thinking Panama.

@Jonathan:

The Unzaguismo site is down, but it's on Google cache.

I fear that your prognosis for Bolivia may come to pass. Miguel (MABB) offers some disturbing news which underscore your observations.

For a portentous illustration of what such developments really mean, take a look at Ethiopia's EPRDF, a coalition of "democratic" movements which has ruled the country since defeating the military junta (Derg) in 1991. Among other ills they've brought the country, since 2004, the government has engaged in a resettlement program to move 2 million people from the arid highlands to the east to deal with food shortages. As you might guess, the displaced in the resettlement camps are suffering from hunger...

I agree with your comments regarding "indigenous-ness". Much of ethnicity is a construct, too often manipulated to suit political objectives. Check out Hobsbawm and Ranger's "The Invention of Tradition" (1983).

Miguel, I'm glad to see your perspective as someone who lived in Santa Cruz. My wife's family and friends are mostly from Santa Cruz, as well.

What I observed in my time there is that the majority of people living there are for autonomy, as you say. My sister-in-law and several other friends work as teachers. Their paychecks come directly from La Paz. When things in La Paz get bad, they receive no checks. It's like that for thousands of people across the area. That doesn't exactly engender respect for the central government. It increases the desire for more regional power.

There is also perception among cruceños that all the money "stays in La Paz." Santa Cruz doesn't get the share of government revenue it deserves. Roads around La Paz get priority for paving and construction, etc. The only way Santa Cruz gets new highways is if some private company pays.

These are legitimate complaints, and they deserve to be addressed.

Unfortunately, Comite Pro Santa Cruz is using people who want these complaints addressed in their effort to become their own nation.

It also really bothers me to continually see news articles around the web and in print paint cruceños and those who support more autonomy as the "rich, white elite." None of the folks I knew while I was there were rich or white. They were poor or middle class, dark, but colla through and through.