Ciao!

Great posting!
When is the deadline for registration for candidates to parliament and president?
Remember that the left-wing candidates Morales, Quispe and Costa Obregon got 29,7 % but that the left-wing parties got less % of seats. Will this be the same in this years election? Another intresting point is that parties such as MIR, MNR, NFR and ADN have a great local strenght, so even if their parties presidentila candidates fail to get a lot of votes, thet will likely get a couple of seats in the parliament.

Well, seat proportionality is tricky because of the electoral system. Bolivia uses an MMP system just like Germany's, and in 9 different districts (the departments). So half the parliament is won in simple plurality districts. Here, yes, ADN, MNR, MIR do very well, especially in the eastern departments. The proportional seats are given in departments, not nationwide. So even if the left does well nationwide, it can win very few seats if it only won those votes in some places. For example, MAS came in second in the last election, but it didn't even place in 5 of the 9 departments (most of its votes were in only two departments, Oruro & Cochabamba).

Also, the senate comes into play in parliamentary election of the president, since it's a joint session that votes. Each department gets 3 senate seats regardless of population. ADN, MNR, MIR will probably take most (if not all) of the senate seats in 5 departments, perhaps take another few in the other 4 departments.

The real problem the left parties/candidates (Evo, Quispe, etc) face is that they've made almost no headway in the economically thriving eastern departments, especially Santa Cruz & Tarija. And since they also don't appeal to middle class voters, those middle class voters in the east (La Paz & Cochabamba) won't vote for the left either. That ends up w/ a defeat for the left. Populist ultra-nationalist rhetoric plays well in the streets (where protesters are paid or coerced), but it makes small dent in electoral politics (where voters' ballot choices are secret).

Lets analyze the parties competing and their strenghts in each of the regions. I have a spread cheet with the results for the last two general elections and for the local elections last year in each region. However I am wondering how the party system will look like.

What about the left? The MAS and MIP will participate. The Frente Amplio might get a few seats. Will any other left party paticipate?

What about Medinas UN, will it have a party organiazation? I think it will steal votes mainly from MIR and MNR. But will the UN do like MIR i.e. support Quiroga? MIR will however be strong i Tarija.

The MNR and ADN are there. But will ASXII steal the ADN and MNR vote? What about the huge chunk of NFR votes? Will the UCS participate?

I likely have the same spreadsheet as you, and have done some similar work for that in my last conference paper. The short of it is that MNR, MIR, ADN do well in the 5 eastern departments; they don't do quite so well outside. Also, leftist parties have done poorly in Bolivia since 1985; MAS is an exception, but it's mostly a populist party.

MAS & MIP are participating, though MIP might participate in an alliance w/ the COB. I'm sure PS-1 will probably run a few candidates. But MAS is also a sort of umbrella party for the old IU (United Left) parties that include POR, PCB, VSB, and some others.

Doria Medina's UN will run alone, but he & his running mate are former MIR leaders. But Doria Medina will run against Tuto; I see no reason why he wouldn't (he does, after all, have a strong shot at winning).

It's not clear what other parties (other than the new MNR candidacy) will participate. If they do, they'll likely just limp along, they won't be presidential contenders in December. But they will probably solidify their regional holds, the strategy Paz Zamora pointed out by asking his party not to run a presidential candidate, but to run for prefectures (especially Tarija, where they'd win).