7 of 9 prefect races

09.19.2005

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The recent pre-election poll published in La Razón also included a prefect candidate poll for 7 of 9 departments. The results were an interesting contrast to the presidential candidate poll.

This is important because the prefecture elections will dramatically alter Bolivian political structure by giving decentralized power to the departments. And, so far, it seems non-MAS candidates are leading across the departments. And the two departments not included in either presidential or prefecture polls (Beni & Pando) are certainly not expected to give MAS many votes.

While MAS leads presidential polls in La Paz, PODEMOS leads by a substantial margin in the prefecture race. This shouldn't be entirely surprising, though, since their candidate is the popular El Alto alcalde (mayor), José "Pepelucho" Paredes.

Ironically, Jorge Alvarado (MAS) is doing better in Cochabamba than Evo himself is, leading by 10 points over Manfred Reyes Villa (NFR founder). MAS will most likely (I predict) lose the presidency, but take the prefecture of Cochabamba, cementing its regional powerbase.

In Santa Cruz, Rúben Costas, the populist leader of the autonomista movement, has a substantial lead over Freddy Soruco (the MNR candidate). But note that the "mortally wounded" MNR rates very high in Santa Cruz — the department that's increasingly become its stronghold. If we use the 2002 presidential elections & 2004 municipal elections as indication, MNR will do well in Beni (and perhaps also Pando). In Santa Cruz, the poll also should be changed. Only days ago, Guido Añez (PODEMOS) stepped down for health reasons; those 11% are now up for grabs (though PODEMOS has publicly endorsed Costas).

Interestingly, Tuto seems to've built a solid coalition that heads off MAS even in the rural Andean department of Potosí, where its candidate (Sergio Medinacelli) has a daunting lead over everyone. The race is tighter in Oruro (a historical syndicalist stronghold) w/ UN in the lead, followed by MAS & PODEMOS.

In the south, PODEMOS has a commanding lead in Chuquisaca (Sucre). Tarija seems a lock for Mario Cossío — the MNR legislator leads a regional (autonomista) block. He's followed by Paz Zamora (MIR founder & leader). These two departments (but especially Tarija) aren't as populous as Santa Cruz, but have great oil & natural gas reserves.

It should be noted, however, that polls for Oruro, Potosí, Chuquisaca, and Tarija include only urban respondents. MAS would probably do better if the sample had included Potosí & Oruro rural respondents. Not so much in Chuquisaca & Tarija.

Posted by Miguel at 06:27 PM

Comments

What kind of party is Rúben Costas autonomista movement?

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at September 20, 2005 07:12 AM

Well, if you're asking whether Costas' party leans left or right, I'm frankly not sure. Though I'm sure it probably leans right (if we mean pro-business or private property). But most Bolivian parties (and in much of the third world) aren't neatly divided into the European left-right spectrum. Sure, there are a few ideological parties, but they don't tend to do well.

I'd describe Costas' party as a populist, clientelist party. It's built around the Comite Civico Pro Santa Cruz, an sort of political country club dominated by the region's elite business sector. But he's also supported by many smaller regional social movements/organizations, whose leaders have given him their allegience (hence, clientelism).

This isn't very different from how any of the other candidates (including Evo Morales & Jorge Quiroga) are building their electoral coalitions. So Costas is not alone in this kind of politics. Bolivian politics is essentially populist, it has poorly institutionalized political parties.

But if you're asking what Costas probably stands for. He's in favor of regional political autonomy, continued integration with foreign markets, oil & natural gas exports (opposed to nationalization), opposed to the taking of land by MST operatives, and in favor of pro-capital/buisiness legislation to encourage foreign investment & the Bolivian private sector.

Posted by: Miguel [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 20, 2005 01:56 PM

Is there a risk of Santa Cruz trying to leave Bolivia e.g. regionalism or even nationalism a la europena parties like Scottish SNP och Italian Lega Nord or Spanish PNV?

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at September 21, 2005 04:33 AM