Bolivian election update

10.07.2005

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Lots of Bolivian election news today. And w/ info graphics!

First, a parliamentary consensus/compromise seems ready to resolve the of seat (re)apportionment issue. In a surprise move, MAS (which previously suggested increasing the size of the legislature so that no one would lose seats) has now agreed to support the original demand by the Santa Cruz legislative caucus that seat apportionment follow the 2001 census. But there are now still two proposals (the other being from Potosí, which asks that seat be reapportioned in 2010). The graphic to the right shows the alleged support each proposal has, and a figure of what the seat distribution would look like. The vote seems to be falling along regional lines, w/ each claiming their proposal has the necessary votes.

La Razón also published figures from three recent pre-electoral polls, which all put Evo ahead. But note that while Evo has a solid lead nationwide, a substantial second place in Cochabamba (down about 10 points) and third place in Santa Cruz (down about 15 points). When parliament votes for president, losing two of the three most populous departments will hurt. The article has some details on the three different polls, their methodology, and sample sizes. Or click the graphic to the right for a snapshot.

Finally, there's growing popularity of polling voter attitudes towards vice presidential candidates. For what it's worth, María René Duchén, Tuto Quiroga's running mate, has a commanding national lead (14 points over second-place Álvaro García Linera). Though, interestingly, Carlos Dabdoub (a former president of the Comité Cívico) has a monstrous 38 points in Santa Cruz. Which prompts questions about whether UN wouldn't be better served w/ him as the presidential candidate, rather than Samuel Doria Medina (despite the latter being Bolivia's richest man).

Posted by Miguel at 07:27 AM