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More interesting Bolivian polls

12.09.2005

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Angus Reid Consultants have been posting a series of national-aggregate polling data (the polls were done by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado) on the upcoming Bolivian elections. This week, they posted two different sets of numbers (one, two). Interestingly, they're a bit different. But it seems to only be a function of when the polls ended. The first one gives a graphic on a poll data from 23-27 November, the second gives a snapshot on poll data from 26-30 November. So there's an overlap, but the overall trend of two 5-day trends give us a sense of the numbers' movement. But the numbers also give different previous numbers, which are a bit difficult to parse from a short explanation. Still, some interesting things to notice.

But, first, keep in mind that these are only national-aggregate polls, w/ no information on department-level poll data. And since the president will be elected by a legislative vote, the departmental votes will be crucial, since they'll determine the number of seats each candidate's party wins in each department.

Still, the polls suggest that Evo (36%) is now clearly in the lead, w/ a 6-point lead over Tuto (30%), as of the last poll. But both have gone up 2-3 points (Evo from 32.8% & Tuto from 27.7%) since the first 5-day period. Also up in the polls is Samuel Doria Medina (now 12%) & the MNR's Michiaki Nagatani (now 8%), which is also a 2-3 point boost for these two as well. This could be because undecided voters are starting to break towards candidates. But the fact that the bump is almost the same for all four candidates is suspicious. In theory, the bump should be towards some candidates more than others.

If the numbers are correct, though, this means that 86% of the vote is accounted for w/ just these four candidates. If blank/null ballots remain at about 7%, and we generously give 1% to each of the other four candidates, that almost wraps up all the voters out there.

But there's one glaring problem w/ many of these polls, which leads me to believe that Evo's numbers are soft: They don't distinguish between voters & non-voters. Although voting is mandatory in Bolivia (as in most countries in the region), absenteeism is still about 20%. Absenteeism is higher, of course, in marginal areas (especially in La Paz & Potosí). Since these are the kinds of people who'd more likely vote for Evo, it's possible that his vote share goes down from the polls solely based on that (it probably wouldn't be crushing, but it might narrow the gap against Tuto).

The MNR lives

Also, I'd like to point out the story that few people have mentioned. It's quite clear that reports of the death of the MNR (Goni's part) have been greatly exagerated. An MNR member (Mario Cossío) is set to win the prefecture of Tarija, the economically vibrant & hydrocarbon-rich southeastern department. And despite a candidate who was little known (virtually unknown outside Santa Cruz), and who lost the Santa Cruz mayorship election by a wide margin, has managed to poll a solid fourth place (and now only 4 points from third). Imagine what the MNR could've done had it run someone like Juan Carlos Durán or Percy Fernandez or Moira Paz.

I think the party still has a future, even if it's may no longer play a dominant role, it certainly has strong legs as a regional party. Compare the MNR's fate in this campaign w/ the virtual disintegration of ADN (which barely won a 3% vote share) in the 2002 elections. And the party wasn't utterly disgraced by having its sitting president toppled in a popular uprising. I think it's safe to say that the silent lesson of this election is that the MNR is not dead, that it still has some life in it.

Posted by Miguel at 01:55 PM

Comments

Posted by: eduardo at December 10, 2005 11:24 AM

Posted by: mcentellas at December 10, 2005 02:00 PM

Posted by: Matthew at December 10, 2005 05:54 PM

Posted by: mcentellas at December 11, 2005 07:28 PM