Coming to a close

12.12.2005

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Officially, the Bolivian general election campaigns come to an end on Thursday. After that, candidates aren't supposed to actively campaign for the three days before Sunday's election. The night before the election, no alcohol can be sold or consumed in public. The day of the election, businesses are expected to be closed, at least until the early afternoon (when some more posh establishments might reopen for tourists).

The last presidential forum/debate was held in La Paz. All the candidates attended, except for Evo Morales. It'll remain to be seen if the strategy of refusing to publicly engage in any kind of debate w/ any of the candidates will help him or not. Regardless, I don't expect to see any new polling numbers before the weekend.

But the MNR's candidate, Michiaki Nagatani, is getting lots of press lately. In part, I think, because the relatively unknown candidate has been running a plucky little campaign. Mostly, however, because the party that was overthrown in October 2003 (w/ many premature eulogies written in the following months) is as of the last polls w/in a hair's breath of placing third, and almost assured of winning two senate seats and two (of nine) prefectures. Could this press make a last-minute bump in the polls? If they do, the party will win enough seats to play a deciding roll in who'll be president. Somehow, I don't think they'll vote for MAS.

On the other hand, both Tuto Quiroga & Doria Medina have announced that they'll respect the first plurality, so long as it wins by at least 5%. Evo has made a similar pronouncement as well (expecting, no doubt, that he'll win the first plurality). That looks good for a potential MAS presidency. Though I wonder if Tuto & Doria Media wouldn't rather just let Evo face an opposition-dominated parliament & strong resistance from all nine prefects.

Either way, the candidates are expecting to close their campaigns after quick whirlwind tours of a few last minute campaign stops. Here's the itinerary.

Interestingly, MAS is focusing on departments where they're strong, ignoring the battleground departments of Potosí & Chuquisaca. This might prove to be a problem, since MAS desperately needs to do well in both departments if it hopes to prevent PODEMOS from winning a senate majority. The MAS campaign will close out in its home department of Cochabamba.

PODEMOS, on the other hand, is crossing more ground, starting w/ the cities of Potosí & Sucre (the capital of Chuquisaca). The campaign will close w/ a rally at the Parque Urbano in Santa Cruz.

Doria Medina's UN is also covering a lot of ground, and will end its campaign in El Alto. An interesting choice. It seems Doria Medina has ceded Santa Cruz (it was polling first there in October, then fell dramatically to third by late November). But El Alto has a lot of voters, and Doria Medina has long-established ties w/ some powerful gremialista syndicates in the slum city. Could help him pick up some serious ground in the country's largest electoral department.

Finally, the MNR will also close its campaign in Santa Cruz, where it is now could potentially place third (or even second!) following some dramatic jumps in the polls. The MNR's performance has completely amazed me. The campaign was a three-way race only a month or so ago, and now the MNR is a serious contender again, polling better than the ADN in 2002(!). Remarkable. I can only imagine what would've happened if they'd run a better-known candidate, like Juan Carlos Duran (who's noticeably absent from the contest).

Posted by Miguel at 11:42 PM

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