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12.14.2005

Technorati tag: Bolivia

What is likely to be the final Ipsos-Captura poll was just released today in a series of articles published in the Usted Elige supplement to several newspapers around the country. The highlights: Evo Morales (34.2%) is still ahead of Tuto Quiroga (29.2%), w/ Samuel Doria Medina (8.9%) continuing to drop, as well as the MNR's Michiaki Nagatani (4.2%). Felpe Quispe had a boost in the polls to reach fifth place w/ 0.7%. The poll was taken 7-11 December.

In by-department polls: Evo continues to lead in La Paz, Oruro, and Cochabamba. Tuto continues to lead in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando. Chuquisaca & Potosí are too close to call, where Tuto's lead is below the +/- 5.5% margin of error. Interestingly, though, several of the leads have dropped.

Evo dropped to 48.4% in La Paz (a drop of nearly 5 points) & to 39.1% in Oruro. He went up a few points in Cochabamba, to 41.3%.

Tuto dropped slightly to 40.3% in Santa Cruz, to 45.7% in Pando, and to 33.3% in Chuquisaca. He went up in Beni to 47.8% (almost 10 points) & to 53.9% in Tarija (almost a 5-point jump).

Only in Beni does the MNR now have a second place showing (13.7%), but it's less than a 2-point lead over MAS (12.3%)

Doria Medina's UN is labelled the "big loser" in the poll. Despite placing third, it would not come in second or first in any department, meaning it'd be shut out of any Senate seats. So far, it looks like we could have a two-party senate (MAS v. PODEMOS), w/ the chance of a lone MNR seat. The lower chamber House of Deputies, of course, will include more parties, but will still likely be dominated by MAS & PODEMOS.

There are also finally some uninominal (the single-member district candidates for the lower house) polls, but I frankly don't trust these. Partly because "don't know, no answer" is so high (averaging a third of respondents).

Prefect races remain about the same. PODEMOS candidates are set to win in La Paz, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca. PODEMOS candidates are also ahead in Oruro & Potosí, but the large number of undecideds could come into play. In Santa Cruz & Tarija, independent alliances are set to win (both, however, support Tuto over Evo). The MNR's Mario Cossío (running w/ a regional electoral alliance) will win in Tarija. The leader of the regional autonomy movement, Rubén Costas, will win in Santa Cruz. Finally, the NFR's Manfred Reyes Villa will win in Cochabamba. MAS is expected to win none of the nine prefectures.

Bottom line: It looks as if Evo will win, especially if the other candidates decide to live up to their pledge to respect the first plurality winner if the difference is more than five points. Some have argued this is unconstitutional. Well, it's not. The constitution stipulates that the newly elected legislature (in joint session) will vote from among the top two contenders. But if there's a deadlock, then the first plurality winner is made president by default. I think this is the approach Tuto & the others will take. Such a move has the advantage (for them) of putting Evo in office w/ little legitimacy, beyond his plurality (and a plurality is not a majority). Essentially, Evo will be president "by default" & will not have been elected by the people or the legislature.

And an Evo presidency, facing an opposition-controlled Senate & House of Deputies, and w/ none of the prefects under his control, will be the most heavily restricted presidency in Bolivia's democratic history.

Posted by Miguel at 11:59 AM

Comments

Posted by: eduardo at December 17, 2005 08:21 PM

Posted by: mcentellas at December 17, 2005 09:43 PM