Evo's winner-take-all politics
02.16.2006Technorati tags: Bolivia Evo Morales
Evo's now been Bolivia's president a little less than a month. At first, there were many encouraging signs. He made overtures, showing he's willing to compromise on coca eradication (holding to coca crop limits set by Mesa's administration) & hydrocarbons investment (ensuring he wouldn't confiscate transnational holdings). In short, Evo seemed to accept that coca crops should be limited to internal consumption (though he's seeking legitimate, international markets) while controlling against narcotic uses for the crop. Similarly, Evo seemed willing to court much-needed international investment (though he's seeking to renegotiate contracts that better protect Bolivian interests).
None of that has changed. What has changed, is that Evo's launched an offensive against his domestic political opponents. And here, he's beginning to look too much like Venezuela's Chavez.
The political conflict revolves around the constituent assembly. Yesterday, Evo announced he's going forward w/ his plan for a constitutional assembly to write a new constitution. This is nothing new, of course. A new constitutional assembly was a key part of the October 2003 protests, their aftermath, and the December 2005 elections. The problem, of course, is how the delegates will be elected. Especially if the election of delegates is gerrymandered to ensure a pro-Evo victory.
Evo's proposal is for three delegates to be elected from each of the country's 70 uninominal legislative districts (the single-seat district tier of the House of Deputies). That would allow for a constitutional assembly of 210 members. Such a proposal isn't radical, of course, although it does give preference to population (the legislative districts are roughly based on census figures) over other forms of representation (e.g. ethnic or territorial). Smaller departments (w/ fewer legislative districts) have already complained. As of today, Beni, Pando, and Tarija won't go, Chuquisaca hasn't decided, and Cochabamba, Santa Cruz, and Oruro oppose Evo's formula for a constitutional assembly. That's 7 of 9 departments opposed.
In large measure, the reaction against Evo's constitutional assembly plan comes from the electoral formula he wants. He wants the winning list in each district to win 2 seats; the second-place list would win 1 seat. Unless, of course, a list wins a simple majority (50%+1). In which case that list would win all three seats. Theoretically, a party could win 51% of the vote in every single district & win every single seat (leaving 49% of votes unrepresented).
If voters voted as they did in the 2005 election, by legislative district, MAS would win:
Chuquisaca 13 (of 18) seats
La Paz 41 (of 45) seats
Cochabamba 26 (of 30) seats
Oruro 10 (of 15) seats
Potosí 17 (of 24) seats
Tarija 3 (of 15) seats
Santa Cruz 13 (of 39) seats
Beni 0 (of 15) seats
Pando 0 (of 9) seats
This would give MAS 133 (of 210) seats, or 63.3% of the legislature (nearly two thirds). This is a highly disproportional result, when we consider that MAS only won 43.5% of the vote across the 70 legislative districts. How votes are translated into seats can have dramatic consequences.
The bottom line is that the electoral formula Evo suggests is highly problematic. The rules are meant to benefit the largest party, at the expense of all others. It's specifically meant to manufacture a supermajority. Which is essentially how Chavez (Venezuela) & Fuijimori (Peru) manufactured a constituent assembly to write a constitution that further secured their authority.
Evo's verbal assaults (and threats) against the National Electoral Court (CNE, Corte Nacional Electoral) are also troubling. The politically independent election monitoring body has shown remarkable institutionality in the last decade. It'd be troubling if the electoral court was dismissed or stacked w/ pro-Evo sympathizers.
Likewise, Evo's threats of mobilizing his supporters against his opponents in parliament spell trouble. Bolivia's finally experiencing a truly presidential system, after two decades of governments based on parliamentary multi-party coalitions. It's clear Evo doesn't like to compromise or negotiate w/ his political opponents. But democratic governance is as much about compromise as it is about majority rule. After all, minorities must be protected. It'd be a sad precedent if Bolivia's first directly-elected president decides that because he won w/ 53.7% of the vote, the other 46.3% of Bolivians don't matter.
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CORRECTION: My original seat count was slightly off, giving MAS a few extra seats (changing their seat share by about 2%). I've corrected the figures (above) by deleting the incorrect figures, replacing them w/ the correct ones. All the calculations were done based on the official CNE report.
Posted by Miguel at 07:04 PM