An Evo-Chavez split?

02.19.2006

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Some interesting Bolivian developments this weekend. Evo's moving closer to the US, and being pushed farther from Chavez. In large measure, by Chavez himself.

Bolivia's key strategic resource is natural gas. It was a key issue in the October 2003 guerra del gas ("gas war"). Demands included outright nationalization of the industry, or at least higher prices & higher taxes (to give Bolivia a greater share of the wealth generated by gas exports). New (re)negotiations included attempts to increase the price of gas exported to Brazil & Argentina.

Yesterday (see La Razon), the Brazilian government announced that Chavez has proposed a new pipeline project to sell natural gas to Brazil & Argentina at $1 per barrel (currently Bolivian gas is sold to Brazil at $3.23 per barrel & to Argentina at $3.18 per barrel). While many doubt the viability of a gas pipeline from Venezuela to southern Brazil (crossing through most of the Amazon), Chavez' offer clearly undercuts Bolivian efforts to negotiate for higher gas prices.

Of course, this makes realpolitik sense. Chavez' authoritarian regime is maintained in large measure by its vast gas revenues (the largest in the region). Any increase in Bolivian gas exports (the next largest reserves in the region) would hinder the Venezuelan regime. Likewise, any instability in Bolivia or mere inability to supply its neighbors w/ gas strengthens Venezuela's power in the region. Chavez may like a popular anti-neoliberal ally in the region, but it was never in his interest for Bolivia to be politically (or economically!) stable.

In the meantime, Evo met w/ the US ambassador (David Greenlee) for what seems an amicable meeting (see La Razon) on the issue of coca eradication. The only issue between the two, is how much legal coca will be allowed (the US has regularly asked for a limit of 3,200 hectares; the cocaleros (coca farmers) want 40 square meters per affiliate (the coca farmers are organized into six federations w/ affiliated members; Evo is president of the six federations). Evo even announced that he would eradicate coca beyond the cato (40 square meters per affiliate), even using anti-drug forces. He also announced the cocaleros had agreed not to plant new coca fields in national parks.

Perhaps Evo's becoming used to the realities of realpolitik. Because reality tends to ultimately trump rhetoric. There is no real, legitimate international market for coca or coca products. Just cocaine. And the production of coca in the Chapare isn't destined for Bolivia's internal, traditional, and legal coca market. Clearly, the bulk of the Chapare coca is geared towards export, which clearly means the cocaine market. Perhaps Evo's government can begin to generate an alternative international coca market (for tea or pharmaceuticals). But until that's the case, there's little legitimate reason to fight for expanded coca crops — especially if he wants to claim he's not connected (directly or indirectly) in the international drug trade.

Similarly, it's clear that Venezuela has less-than-altruistic interests in Bolivia. The sooner Evo's supporters realize this, the better. Because if the fight is against foreign interference, it makes little sense to trade in US & IMF interference for Venezuelan interferences — especially since US & other international economic assistance (mostly in non-loan aid) makes up such a large share of Bolivia's economy (and government budget).

Posted by Miguel at 09:51 AM