Constituent assembly almost ready
03.04.2006Technorati tags: Bolivia politics
The final parliamentary vote's still upcoming. So things could change. But it seems there's a consensus agreement on Bolivia's constituent assembly. The biggest two big hang-ups were: 1) whether the autonomy referendum would be binding, or not, and binding on who; and 2) how seats would be apportioned and how representatives would be elected. Both issues have been agreed upon. The next post outlines the assembly's potential composition.
The referendum on regional political autonomy will be binding on the constituent assembly. Meaning that if the referendum passes, it will form part of the structure of the new constitution. And the referendum will be by department, so the constituent assembly will have to "take into consideration" the departments that vote for autonomy, but the process of regional autonomy will begin after the constituent assembly, not after the referendum. Though everyone expects the referendum on autonomy will likely pass in most (if not all) departments.
As part of the agreement, the six smaller departments (Beni, Pando, Tarija, Chuquisaca, Potosí, and Oruro) will receive funds drawn from a "compensation fund" provided by the three larger departments to help them in their transition towards autonomy. Also, the referendum question (still not finalized) will emphasize the need for national unity (so autonomy, not secession).
As for the constituent assembly's composition: The Morales' government proposal of three representatives per uninominal legislative district stands (210 total seats). But the winner of each district will only receive two seats, not three; the second runner-up will receive the other seat. As a compromise, each department will also have five other representatives elected department-wide (45 total seats). The winner will win two seats, the next three runners-up will each win a seat. If any of the three runners-up win less than 5% of the vote (the electoral threshold), then seats will be apportioned to the front runners using a quota system taking into account the relative weight of the vote shares for lists that pass the threshold. Of course, this means that candidates will run as members of electoral lists for the 255-member body.
All the branches of government (executive, legislative, courts, and constitutional tribunal) will continue to operate while the constituent assembly deliberates. The body will work for no less than six moths, and no longer than a year. Once a new constitution is agreed upon, Bolivian voters must approve it in a referendum (w/in 120 days) before it can take effect.
The compromise on representatives works seems (to me) fairly equitable. Especially considering that small departments are already disproportionally over-represented even if only using uninominal districts. While the three largest departments (La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba) make up the bulk of the seats, the median vote-to-seat ratio for uninominal districts are high compared to the vote-to-seat ratio for the other six departments (using registered voters per department in the last election):
La Paz: 69,386 voters per seat
Cochabamba: 64,518 voters per seat
Santa Cruz: 56,604 voters per seat
Chuquisaca: 49,335 voters per seat
Tarija: 38,341 voters per seat
Potosí: 36,943 voters per seat
Oruro: 36,122 voters per seat
Beni: 26,944 voters per seat
Pando: 5,611 voters per seat
If we consider the added five seats per department, we get the following figures (using registered voters by department in the last election):
La Paz: 50 seats, 23,664 voters per seat
Cochabamba: 35 seats, 18,533 voters per seat
Santa Cruz: 44 seats, 18,423 voters per seat
Oruro: 20 seats, 9,720 voters per seat
Chuquisaca: 23 seats, 9,322 voters per seat
Potosí: 29 seats, 9,710 voters per seat
Beni: 20 seats, 6,736 voters per seat
Tarija: 32 seats, 5,561 voters per seat
Pando: 14 seats, 1,829 voters per seat
Essentially, Pando is the most over-represented department (by a ratio of 13:1 when compared to La Paz, the most under-represented department). Even though the three largest departments will make up just over 50% of the seats, they make up 72% of the nation's registered voters. So it's fair to say that the constituent assembly will protect the interests of small departments quite well. The media luna departments (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando) alone make up only 31% of the voting population but 43% of the proposed constituent assembly. If we add Chuquisaca to the mix, the figures are 37% of the voting population but 52% of the assembly. In sharp contrast, La Paz makes up 32% of the voting population but only 20% of the assembly.
Of course, these things could change in the next few days as the parliament debates them. But the agreement, coming after a long period of discussion between government & opposition forces, seems likely to hold.
Posted by Miguel at 01:09 PM