Ciao!: Potential assembly composition

Potential assembly composition

03.04.2006

The figures below are merely conjecture, based on the 2005 election results for uninominal districts (that is, the portion of the Bolivian legislature that is elected directly by simple plurality in single-member districts). But if the constituent assembly is composed as outlined in my previous post, we might expect the assembly to look like this:

La Paz would elect 50 delegates (45 from its 15 districts, 5 department-wide). MAS should expect to win each district, for 30 seats, plus another 2 department-wide seats, for a total of 32.
Cochabamba would elect 35 delegates (30+5). MAS should expect to win nine of ten districts & place second in the other, for 19 seats, plus another 2 department-wide seats, for a total of 21.

Santa Cruz would elect 44 delegates (39+5). MAS should expect to win in five districts & second in three others, for 13 seats, plus another 1 department-wide seat, for a total of 14.

Chuquisaca would elect 23 delegates (18+5). MAS should expect to win in five districts & second in the other, for 11 seats, plus another 2 department-wide seats, for a total of 13.

Oruro would elect 20 delegates (15+5). MAS should expect to win in three districts & second in the other two, for 8 seats, plus another 2 department-wide seats, for a total of 10.

Potosí would elect 29 delegates (24+5). MAS should expect to win in seven districts & second in the other, for 15 seats, plus another 2 department-wide seats, for a total of 17.

Tarija would elect 32 delegates (27+5). MAS should expect to win one district & second in two others, for 4 seats, plus another 1 department-wide seat, for a total of 5.

Beni would elect 20 delegates (15+5). MAS should expect to place second in one district, for 1 seat, plus another 1 seat department-wide, for a total of 2.

Pando would elect 14 delegates (9+5). MAS should expect to place second in one district, for 1 seat, plus another 1 seat department-wide, for a total of 2.

The grand total would give MAS 116 delegates, or 45% of the constituent assembly (based on 43.52% of the total nation-wide vote across uninominal districts). Of course, these figures are all merely extrapolations based on voting results in the 2005 election & are subject to change. But certainly this arrangement seems to make it much more difficult for Evo or MAS to stack the assembly in their favor & turning it into a rubber stamp.

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UPDATE: For a comparison, this previous post shows why electoral rules matter while this previous post shows how Evo's proposed electoral formula would've produced a much different result (winning 63% of the seats based on 43% of the vote).

Posted by Miguel at 01:33 PM

Comments

As you mention, so much can happen between now and the date of the election. One must wonder whether Morales' 79% approval rate might mean that some voters who may not have voted for MAS last December will now vote for other MAS candidates. I'd be interested in seeing how PODEMOS is represented in those elections. I would guess that we will see a lot of citizen's groups, especially in the area of the Gran Chaco, where there is sentiment for the creation of a 10th Department.

Then again, MAS could continue to "meter la pata" and could lose some of the middle-class vote. It will be interesting to see who these candidates will be. Could Tuto or Doria Medina become candidates?

Posted by: eduardo at March 4, 2006 11:10 PM

You're right, much can happen. Though I'm not sure how well Evo's popularity will translate into votes for MAS. In part, because while Evo got 53% of the national vote, MAS only got 43% of the national vote (adding up all the uninominal votes). His was the party w/ the greatest decline in votes from president to uninominal ballots (UN increased substantially, and even MNR increased slightly, PODEMOS remained about the same). But in a single ballot election, who knows. And if more citizens' groups participate, they'll likely be headed by candidates who can win at least one seat in a district. Either way, I'm just excited that the rules make it much more difficult for any one party (MAS or otherwise) to win a majority (or even supermajority) of the body w/ only a decent showing of votes.

Posted by: mcentellas at March 5, 2006 10:32 AM