Ciao!

Autonomy referendum poll

05.15.2006

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

A very quick note on the upcoming referendum on regional autonomies in Bolivia. Today's La Razón published two polls showing declining support for regional autonomies across the country. But more importantly, support is heavily skewed by region. In El Alto (the "rebellious city") "No" is winning by 12 points.

In part, it's clear that Evo's government & MAS are actively campaigning to defeat regional autonomies. That's their prerogative, of course. But it's a dramatic change of heart from previous statements of (lukewarm) support. And it's clear that a heavy PR campaign — the government's installing 29 new radio stations around the country — will back a "No" vote. But it's also clear that "Sí" will win in Santa Cruz (it's still polling 69%), and is leading (but not a majority of all respondents) in every other media una department.

So there's the rub. It was a long fight to make the referendum binding (vinculante). But what happens if the referendum fails nation-wide, but wins in key departments? Do those departments get autonomy? Keep in mind that the departments that most strongly support political autonomy from the central government are the departments w/ the most hydrocarbon resources & better economies.

Posted by Miguel at 06:37 PM

Comments

Posted by: anticap at May 19, 2006 06:53 AM