Ciao!

The role of minor parties

07.05.2006

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics elections

A few people have emailed to ask me about the minor parties that participated in Sunday's constituent assembly election. Specifically, wanting to know something of their political orientation. Also, whether they were allied w/ MAS or not, and whether such an "alliance" was successful.

(Evo announced during the campaign that he would make "alliances" w/ minor parties in order to win more seats than was possible under the electoral law. Frankly, I don't see how this is possible, since voters have only one choice on each section of the ballot. Unless voters could pre-organize to determine which of them would vote for MAS & which of them for the minor parties, there's no way to ensure this kind of compliance. Certainly not as they could in a preferential voting system like STV.)

Besides MAS (Evo's party), the other major parties were: Podemos, Unidad Nacional, and the MNR. Podemos (Poder Democrático y Social) is less a "party" than a broad social/populist alliance of the center-right — essentially a reverse mirror image of MAS. Unidad Nacional is also a populist party, but perhaps more centrist, led by the country's (reportedly) richest man.

The MNR (Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario) is the country's oldest (and perhaps only) institutionalized party. It's origins in the post-Chaco 1940s nationalist-revolutionary movement, by the 1990s the party transitioned into a liberal-pluralist party that would put it in the political center or center-right. Despite the uprising that ended Goni's (Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada) presidency in 2003, the party ran a slate of candidates in 2005 — and placed a distant fourth place. In Sunday's constituent assembly election, the MNR ran slates in every department, though under different banners. In some, it ran as "MNR" in others as "A3-MNR" (an alliance that included ADN in Santa Cruz) and in others as "CC" (Camino al Cambio, an alliance between the MNR and the local FRI party of Tarija).

So far the only other parties to potentially win seats are:

Concertación Nacional (CN), led by Franz Aguirre, which ran slates in Chuquisaca, La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro, and Santa Cruz. It represented an evangelical Christian movement. It campaigned for a "No" vote in the autonomy referendum. In some statements, Aguirre also argued that the Bolivian state should retain "dominion" (not quite ownership) over natural resources & land ownership. While not a clear MAS ally, CN seems a likely potential ally. So far it looks like CN won 8 seats.

Alianza Social (AS), led by René Joaquino, ran a slate only in Potosí. Joaquino openly talks about an alliance w/ MAS. But in 2005, Joaquino (a popular mayor of the department's capital city) openly flirted w/ several parties, including Podemos (he was named a potential VP running mate for Tuto). So far it looks like AS won 6 seats.

MCSFA (Movimiento Ciudadano San Felipe de Austria), led by Édgar Bazán, ran a slate only in Oruro. This electoral front was a declared MAS ally before the election — though MCSFA also publicly split from MAS to run its own slate, it seems this was only a tactical consideration. So far it looks like MCSFA won only one seat.

MAS also made a pre-electoral alliance w/ MBL (Movimiento Bolivia Libre), led by Franz Barrios, which ran slates in La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, and Potosí. MBL is an older party that split from MIR in the 1980s; at various times it formed part of the IU alliance (from which MAS also emerged) & many of its former members (such as Juan del Granado of MSM) have recently allied w/ MAS. MBL looks like it won 5 seats overall.

MOP (Movimiento Originario Popular) was a MAS ally in Potosí. The party ran an unsuccessful independent prefecture campaign in December 2005. So far it looks like MOP won 3 seats.

Alianza Social Patriotica (ASP) ran a slate only in La Paz. The small party is built around the personality of former police major David Vargas; he led the GES (the Bolivian SWAT) in their February 2003 mutiny which ended in a confrontation between police & the military in front of the presidential palace — leaving several dead & wounded civilians. In December, David Vargas was a candidate for prefect of La Paz (he won 11.9%) for Frepab (Frente Patriótico Agropecuario de Bolivia); he's a likely Evo ally. So far it looks like ASP won two seats.

AAI (Alianza Andrés Ibañez) ran a slate only in Santa Cruz. The pro-autonomy slate included Hormando Vaca Diez, a high figure in MIR and former president of the Senate. It's highly unlikely that AAI would ally w/ MAS in the constituent assembly. So far it looks like AAI won a single seat.

Finally, ASI (Alianza Social Integradora) ran a slate only in in Santa Cruz. It was led by Jerjes Justiniano, a long-established Bolivian socialist (he was a presidential candidate on numerous occasions). Justiniano, however, is an orthodox Marxist who believes in "scientific socialism" rather than syndicalism — he'd be an unlikely Evo ally, especially w/ his stated pro-autonomy position. So far it doesn't look like ASI won any seats.

I'll leave off commenting on any of the other minor parties that don't look like they've won any seats. These include: AYRA, Tradepa, CDC, ALBA, MIBOL, APB, and MACA, as well as ADN & MIR (which are now a "minor" parties).

----
UPDATE: In addition to the brief blurb about APB below (see the comments), it now also looks like AYRA will win at least one seat in the assembly. Movimiento Ayra is a leftist-student movement founded in honor of Che Guevarra (the word "Ayra" means "Renovación") & will certainly be a MAS ally.

Posted by Miguel at 10:58 AM

Comments

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at July 5, 2006 02:43 PM

Posted by: mcentellas at July 5, 2006 05:20 PM