Final (but still unofficial) results
07.09.2006Technorati tags: Bolivia politics elections
MABB beat me to the punch today w/ a post on the near-final count for the constituent assembly. I think his analysis on the Santa Cruz vote, particularly, is correct: MAS didn't so much "win" in Santa Cruz as the anti-MAS vote was splintered (partly in hopes to win more seats, partly because of internal divisions). But the bottom line: It's clear that MAS & its allies will not hold the two-thirds majority needed to control the assembly. MABB also has comments on the high number of blank/null votes that seem convincing.
Today's La Razón includes a series of information graphics on the new constituent assembly (cross-posted to my Flickr account).
In a brief statistical breakdown, of the 255 delegates: 73 are syndicalist or trade union leaders, 23 are politicians, 8 are academics, 3 are members of other civic organizations, and 2 are social activists.
In terms of occupational profession:
58 lawyers
17 teachers
17 in agriculture (mostly campesinos or rural leaders)
12 communicators
8 gremiales (members of small trade associations)
8 engineers
7 (university) students
5 are economists
5 técnicos
4 entrepreneurs
4 transportistas (in transportation industry)
4 doctors
3 police officers
3 political scientists
3 administrators
3 auditors
2 sociologists
2 miners
2 architects
2 social workers
2 micro-entrepreneurs
1 seamstress
1 philosopher
1 epistemologist
1 artesan
1 nurse
1 theologian
1 consultant
1 veterinarian
1 singer-songwriter
1 anthropologist
1 housewife
More than two thirds of the delegates (171) are men; less than a third (84) are women. Most delegates are also either between 31-40 years old (88) or 41-50 years old (75).
Delegates elected
The total final delegate count comes out as follows:
MAS: 136 (of these, 7 are MSM delegates from La Paz)
Podemos: 62
MNR: 16
MBL: 8
Unidad Nacional: 8
AS: 6
Concertación Nacional: 5
AYRA: 3
MOP: 3
ASP: 2
APB: 2
ASI: 1
AAI: 1
MCSFA: 1
MIR: 1
I've combined the three different MNR lists (which represented the party in different departments) into a single bloc.
MAS alone holds 53.3% of the seats (after winning 50.7% of the national vote). Podemos took 24.3% of the seats (w/ 15.3% of the vote), followed by the MNR w/ 6.3% of the seats (7.5% of the vote), and MBL & Unidad Nacional each w/ 3.1% of the seats.
The most likely MAS-led bloc (MAS+MBL+MSM+AS+AYRA+MOP+ASP+MCSFA) would hold only 61.2% of the seats, not enough to override any opposition.
The opposition bloc led by Podemos, would almost certainly include the MNR, MIR, APB, and AAI delegates, who together hold 32.2% of the seats, not enough to block any proposals.
Most likely, the balance will depend on where Concertación Nacional (an alliance of Christan Evangelical churches) and Unidad Nacional (a vaguely centrist populist party) position themselves. Evo Morales has stated he's willing to negotiate w/ anyone — except Podemos. In this balancing act, the lone seat held by orthodox (but anti-syndicalist) Marxist Jerjes Justiniano (who supports regional autonomy) may be the tipping point.
Posted by Miguel at 06:17 PM