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Post-election thoughts

07.10.2006

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics elections

The official final count is still not posted (La Paz is still missing a final count in one district), but w/ 99.9% of the vote in, these results are likely to hold up pretty well. So I thought I'd toss my two cents into the question of whether MAS or the opposition (e.g. Podemos) did better/worse than expected or compared to December 2005.

MAS won 50.72% of the vote, compared to 53.74% in December. Podemos likewise dropped in its vote share — from 28.59% to 15.33%. But it's important to remember that this was a different kind of election (particularly in terms of how votes transferred to seats). It's especially important to keep in mind that while only eight candidate lists — all of them the same across the nine departments — competed last December, a total of 25 electoral lists competed this July. And not all lists ran in all departments. In fact, three of the lists made up different MNR lists, which ran under slightly different banners in different departments.

That said, one could look at the current results slightly differently. Keeping in mind that minor candidates who won only a sliver of the national vote (e.g. MCSFA w/ 0.15%) may have enough concentrated voting power to win seats in the smaller districts.

MAS did decline in vote strength by about three points. But if we add to MAS votes those for its "allied" lists that ran in hopes of winning extra seats for a broader MAS-led front, MAS breaks even. Conservatively adding votes for AS, AYRA, MBL, MCSFA, and MOP, the total comes to 53.70% — the total's 57.27% if we add Concertación Nacional's 3.58%. So it's clear that MAS did as well, perhaps slightly better, than it did in December. In large part, by surprisingly winning the first plurality in Tarija & Santa Cruz, where the party expanded its presence since December.

The biggest loser is perhaps Podemos, which lost more than ten points between elections. But the result isn't as bleak for the opposition party once we consider that several of the lists that ran in July represent Podemos alliance parties from December — and will likely continue to support Podemos. If we add the votes for AAI, ADN, APB, MIR, and UCS, the total comes to 21.19%. Though that figure still represents a seven-point drop. Still, Podemos' vote was concentrated enough to win it nearly a quarter of the assembly seats. Similarly, like MAS, Podemos was the only party able to win seats in each of the country's nine departments.

The other two parties currently in parliament — Unidad Nacional & the MNR — remained relatively stable. Unidad Nacional dropped half a point; the MNR increased its vote (if we add its three lists) by more than a point (from 6.47% to 7.54%).

The end result is that the votes were more widely dispersed in last week's constituent assembly election. And the largest loser was Podemos, though not by much. It's also difficult to tell, since 16.77% of the national tally were blank & null votes. While this is in line w/ uninominal (non-presidential parliamentary) votes, the numbers are high enough that if supporters from one or other tendency didn't cast a legitimate vote, it could skew results. The fact that the "Sí" vote on the autonomy referendum was so high in places like Santa Cruz & Tarija, and w/ much lower blank/null votes, suggests that voters in areas more predisposed to vote for Podemos (or similar tendencies) voted blank/null in disproportional numbers. But, of course, this is only conjecture.

Regional party systems

The constituent assembly elections also demonstrate a growing different in regional party systems, rather than a national party system. While MAS & Podemos are the two dominant alliances (neither is truly a "political party"), they not only have different regional strengths — they also face different regional competitors.

MAS dominates the Andean regions of Bolivia. Which is remarkable, since no party has been able to do that since the 1980s. In large measure, the splintered & highly volatile Andean vote allowed the more consolidated party systems in the media luna to dictate national politics — until the late 1990s. In places like La Paz & Cochabamba, the MAS position is downright hegemonic.

But in the media luna departments, we now see a reverse trend. While the Andean departments have clearly become dominant-party systems, media luna departments have remained competitive multiparty systems. They always were, of course. But prior to 2005, the effective number of parties was regularly higher in the Andes than in the media luna — w/ the notable exception of 2002 Cochabamba, which was a two-party system between NFR & MAS.

In Santa Cruz, MAS & Podemos evenly split half the department vote. Most of the remainder is taken by the MNR & APB (which holds the prefecture & is a Podemos ally). In Beni, Podemos nearly takes half the vote, w/ the MNR taking nearly a third, and MAS close behind. In Pando, it's a two-party contest between Podemos & MAS. In Tarija, MAS surprisingly won a plurality, but the MNR and Podemos are still highly competitive.

So long as MAS (or a similar alliance) can hold saw over both Cochabamba & La Paz, it will win presidential contests. Especially if the media luna based opposition remains divided. And as long as Podemos (or a similar opposition alliance) isn't able to peel away enough voters in either Cochabamba or La Paz (or both), it can't win the presidency. Peeling voters away in metropolitan Cochabamba is possible — so long as the NFR machine established by Manfred Reyes Villa (a Podemos ally) remains intact. Peeling votes away in metropolitan La Paz will be possible only if the MAS alliance w/ MSM (Movimiento Sin Miedo, a leftist/progressive middle class party led by La Paz intellectuals) breaks.

Nevertheless, so far it seems clear that Podemos can't govern. But MAS can't easily ride roughshod over the opposition, either. So. After two decades of neoliberal democratic politics, the pendulum has swung back towards national-populism. But the checks & balances that make Bolivia a democracy haven't yet been broken. Which is a good thing.

Posted by Miguel at 01:12 PM

Comments

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at July 17, 2006 09:34 AM

Posted by: mcentellas at July 17, 2006 11:51 AM

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at July 17, 2006 03:10 PM

Posted by: mcentellas at July 17, 2006 04:04 PM

Posted by: Fredrik Lindqvist at July 18, 2006 06:10 AM

Posted by: mcentellas at July 18, 2006 11:06 AM