A possible MAS-Podemos convergence?
07.13.2006Technorati tags: Bolivia politics elections
The maneuvering space for MAS w/in the constituent assembly just got a bit tighter. Nearly a week after the election, and the parties that won seats are beginning to state their intentions more clearly, according to this El Deber article. Including a few surprises.
El Deber (a Santa Cruz newspaper) focuses on the question of regional (i.e. departmental) autonomies. While the referendum on regional autonomy failed at the national level (57.6% to 42.4%), the referendum passed in four departments: Santa Cruz (71.1%), Tarija (60.8%), Beni (73.8%), and Pando (57.7%). Few doubt that this issue won't be a central issue in the constituent assembly.
So far, the parties that are declared in favor of some form of departmental autonomy include: Podemos, APB, AAI, the MNR, MIR, AS, CN, and Unidad Nacional. Together, these parties elected 102 delegates (40% of seats). The surprises were CN (Concertación Nacional) & AS (Alianza Social) which were often discussed as potential MAS allies. René Joaquino, AS leader & mayor of Potosí, stated that he opposed any alliance of any kind that merely sought to ensure a necessary majority, and stated his opposition to a "centralized state." Auguistín Aguilera, a CN spokesperson, put aside any speculation of a possible CN-MAS alliance when he stated: "As Christians [CN is an alliance of Evangelical churches], we will never make an alliance with a person who is not with God, who turn their back on God."
Still outside the "official" MAS alliance structure are AYRA, MOP, and ASP. AYRA, a small party of student leftists supports a decentralized model based on municipal autonomies. ASP (Alianza Social Patriotica) is led by David Vargas, a former police major who led a mutiny in February 2003 that assaulted the presidential palace, campaigned in La Paz for a "No" vote in the referendum — but supports indigenous, territorial autonomy.
If we include the recent grandstanding by Roberto de la Cruz, an important syndicalist leader in the October 2003 social uprising — who announced the formation of a new radical group of "talibanes" in El Alto — it's clear that groups more radical than MAS are likely to assert their independence, rather than join a MAS-led bloc.
In the end, that means that MAS seems even less likely to dominate the constituent assembly. More so, it may soon be easier — despite all Evo's statements to the contrary — to negotiate a compromise constitution w/ Podemos. Together, MAS & Podemos hold 77.3% of seats. A compromise that would appease the syndicalist MAS and the center-right Podemos (perhaps brokered by the MNR?), and joined by most of the other parties, would perhaps be the best solution. Not only for the convenience of votes in the assembly, but for long-term stability.
Posted by Miguel at 11:02 AM
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