Ciao!

Interesting information. MAS has 137 seats in the assembly, the other three seats are MOP? What about MSCFA and MBL?

Might UN join the third block?

Has the centre-right block (PODEMOS, MNR and allies, APB, MIR and AAI) made any cooperation agreements yet? They should have 84 seats.

The article I cited said that MAS had "amost 140 seats", which I now think meant only their actual 137 seats. I've not yet seen anything spelling out an agreement between MAS & other parties (though I have been busy lately, and some days didn't get to read all my Bolivian sources).

I also don't think the center-right parties have made any formal agreements, but I also don't think they have to (if they're all going to be in the opposition). It seems that since no one will dominate, most are waiting to use their ability to maneuver (hence, the leftist "third bloc") in the assembly itself. I don't think UN will join that third bloc, since it has more in common w/ Podemos & the others.

I dont know Miguel but i seems that when the subject "Frente de Unidad Nacional or just UN" and its leader Samuel Doria Medina you seem to be somewhat insecure. I mean you do not know what the party really stands for. Am I right? :-)

Fredrik:

Yes, it's unclear what Unidad Nacional stands for. Basically, I'd classify it as a neopopulist party. It has rhetoric that aims to appeal to poor voters, but seems to fall in line w/ neoliberal policies.

Samuel Doria Medina is the country's wealthiest man. He owns, among other assets, Bolivia's largest cement company (SOBOCE) & the national Burger King franchise. He served as a viceminister & economic advisor during the ADN-MIR government (1989-1993) & was, until recently, one of the top five powerful figures in MIR (some would say he was Paz Zamora's right-hand man). He's well acquainted w/ Tuto Quiroga (both served in the same ministry 1989-1993, and he was part of the megacoalition government's economic planning team (1997-2002). Bottom line: he's an establishment politician w/ clear ties to MIR & ADN.

Despite founding his own party on vague, unclear rhetoric about "national unity" and "social justice" and such niceties, it seems his party is just a personal vehicle, much like UCS & NFR. Both are also neopopulist parties w/ populist leaders & neoliberal economic policies.

Not to mention that Bolivian politics is full of bizzare alliance of convenience. Such as the ADN-MIR alliance of the 1990s that brought together Banzer (a former dictator) and Paz Zamora (who survived assassination attempts during the Banzer dictatorship).

So, yeah, one never knows what Unidad Nacional or Doria Medina could do.

Why is Concertación Nacional (the alliance of Christian Evangelical churches)in the "leftist" third block? Evangelical parties and groups in the US and Europe har among the moste right-wing.

Actually, I think it's a bit too simplistic to put Evangelical Christians always on the political right, even in the United States. After all, 25% of Evangelicals voted for John Kerry in 2004, which is about the same number of gays/lesbians who voted for Bush in 2004. Groups of people are very complex.

In Latin America (generally), much of the Protestant movement has made its greatest gains in poor areas. For example, there's a strong Evangelical movement in the Altiplano, the El Alto slums, and other poor urban/rural areas. It's only natural that many of these people would still have interests in issues related to their social & economic situation. Many Aymara Evangelicals previously supported the populist party CONDEPA.

Evangelical Christians also care about many of these issues for religious reasons. After all, Christ's mission on earth was aimed primarily at the poor & downtroden; Christians are supposed to care for the earth which was entrusted to us; and they're supposed to help bring social justice to the world. Etc. Where Evangelicals tend to be "conservative" is on individual social issues (abortion, gay marriage, drinking, etc). But on economic & other issues, they are often very much on the left.

In Latin America, of course, you often see Evangelicals on the side of a secular state, because of the preferential treatment given by most governments to the Catholic Church. So that's another issue where the Evangelicals can side w/ the left.

I know that CN isn't exactly aligned with it, but here's a very good entry in Wikipedia about Christian Democracy and Christian democratic movements:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democracy

I don't know. The so called "third block" doesn't mean too much to me. Two of the three groups in the block, mainly Ayra and AS, are still supporting MAS in many issues. I think it'll depend on the issue. Most likely they'll vote against Podemos, almost always and will negotiate with MAS. Ayra has already an agreement with MAS.

MABB:

I totally agree w/ you that AS & Ayra are likely to support MAS on a variety of issues. Though AS is led by René Joaquino, who flirted w/ a Podemos alliance in 2005.

The bottom line is just that MAS -- which is also dealing w/ internal divisions -- isn't going to run the constituent assembly like a rubber stamp. So the body will probably be legitimately democratic & representative, not like the Fujimori/Chavez rubber stamps in Peru/Venezuela.