Bolivia at an impasse

09.05.2006

Technorati tags:

Things are taken a dramatic turn in Bolivia in the last few days. Opposition to Evo's government (concentrated in the lowland media luna departments) is consolidating. Civic organizations in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando have decided to launch a regional strike this Friday. Joining the civic organizations, in a new "National Alliance", are both Podemos & the MNR. The opposition groups are demanding respect for the existing constitution. Not surprisingly, Evo has denounced such movements as threatening to derail the constituent assembly & defraud the popular will.

Principally, the issue involves whether or not decisions made by the constituent assembly will require a simple majority (50%+1) or a two-thirds super-majority (66%+1).

Adding fuel to the fire, Evo's vice president, Alvaro García Linera, offered a "compromise" solution that only made matters worse. The offer? Agree to the assembly statute proposed by MAS delegates w/ a simple majority, but allow for changes to these statutes by a two-thirds majority. In effect, this would mean that MAS would only need a 118 votes (they have 137) to pass statutes regulating how the chamber conducts its business; but any changes to the procedural rules would require a supermajority of 170 votes. In effect, the proposal would virtually set in stone any procedural rules established by MAS. Not surprisingly, the opposition parties & movements rejected the offer.

Even more dangerous, social movements & organizations aligned w/ Evo & MAS are marching on Sucre (the constitutional capital & host to the constituent assembly). Days earlier, Evo had called on the organizations to march on Sucre to defend the constituent assembly in the name of "the people" against political opponents. More recently, Evo asked the movements to not descend on Sucre, so as to not risk political violence. Unfortunately, the organizations (such as CSUTCB, CIDOB) are ignoring the latter instruction but following the former. W/ previous minor clashes between assembly deputies, and between deputies & local opponents of the MAS-led government, tensions are running high.

In a month of activity, the constituent assembly has failed to tackle "substantive" issues, locked instead on deciding the body's procedural rules. Principally, whether decisions should be made by simple majority or supermajority. Bolivian citizens, not surprisingly, are becoming tired of what they consider an "ineffective" institution.

But it's important to remember that procedural matters are "substantive" — they are perhaps the substantive matters. After all, many of the future decisions about specific constitutional rights, responsibilities, or issues of whether the state becomes federal or not, will in large measure by shaped by the kind of procedural rules. And if all sides don't agree on some basic procedural rules, the odds are extremely low that various social groups will accept any subsequent decisions as legitimate.

Nevertheless, Bolivia is again at an impasse. The largest political cleavage is regional, and neither side wants to compromise. But for a continued existence of legitimate single polity (as opposed to two or more polities), both sides will have to compromise. And its unlikely that majoritarian procedural rules can accommodate such a compromise.

In part, it will depend on how effective the Friday strikes are. And on what response Evo's government makes.

----
UPDATE: More over at MABB

Posted by Miguel at 05:17 PM

Comments

Most people that I have spoken to, even those that votes for MAS in December, want it to remain 2/3 vote. The Assembly of la Cochabambinidad also published in today's paper opposing the proposed simple majority.

Posted by: eduardo at September 5, 2006 07:45 PM