On the brink?
09.08.2006Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales
There are regional strikes called for in Bolivia today by opponents to Evo's regime. Principally, demanding that the constituent assembly (CA) decide matters by 2/3 majority (which means MAS would have to compromise w/ at least some other parties), rather than a simple majority (which MAS by itself has). In response, Evo has mobilized the police & may or may not have (the government's signals are confusing) mobilized the military. Simultaneously, MAS supporters are mobilizing towards Sucre (the site of the CA) & the media luna departments.
My parents, from Santa Cruz, worry about potential clashes between youth brigades from the regionalist Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC) v. the student-radical Grupo Che Guevara. I worry about my parents, of course. But I also worry that in the last week or two, Evo has decided to emulate Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. We'll see by day's end what happens. Who knows, it could all blow over. The leaders of the powerful pro-autonomy movement in Santa Cruz have repeatedly postponed potential confrontations (since January 2004) in hopes of compromise. But I wonder if time is running out. I wonder if Evo knows that.
My assessment? Evo can't crack down on the Santa Cruz & Tarija led autonomy movements. First, he can't use the army. Despite threats by several cabinet members to launch investigations into political opponents, the military no longer wants a political role — and the upper ranks certainly don't want a radical-left role. More to the point: A large number of the upper officer ranks (particularly in the army) come from lowland departments; similarly, many of the elite military units are almost entirely recruited from Santa Cruz and the surrounding areas. Evo could use the police, but Santa Cruz has one of the largest & most organized municipal police forces, independent of the national government and answerable only to the city's mayor (and w/ indirect ties to the UJC). The point is simply that I don't think the military is willing to use overwhelming force to "crush" a popular protest in Santa Cruz. And if Evo's supporters try to do it themselves, w/ street battles, they'll find that cruceños are definately not like paceños.
The most interesting thing, in my mind, is that Evo's openly attacking the civic groups organizing todays' protest as "political" activists. The terms "political" & "partisan" are now a derogatory slurs used to mark opponents of Evo's government. But isn't Evo a "political" & "partisan" actor himself? What worries me is the implicit assumption — always present in nationalist-syndicalist groups — that their political program is the "true way" & that opponents are engaging in mere "politics" instead. It's a dangerous dogma to believe. Especially from a political leader whose main tactic throughout the 1990s was protest marches, whether the government was willing to negotiate or not.
Posted by Miguel at 08:05 AM
Comments
Miguel,
It's good to see you commenting on Bolivian news again on a regular basis. Hope everything is going well with the new job.
Posted by: Grant at September 8, 2006 08:56 AM
The new job is going well. I wish Bolivia was calmer, so I could spend more time blogging about my daily life in Carlisle or about my experiences at the new college. Still, Bolivian events are unfolding at an alarming pace (and in alarming directions). So I'll try to keep up. Thanks for the encouragement.
Posted by: mcentellas ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.centellas.org/miguel/nav-commenters.gif)
at September 8, 2006 10:11 AM
I'm pessimistic about Bolivia...I fully expect Evo to declare martial law soon...the Constituent Assembly has not been the rubber stamp Evo wanted, so he'll start ruling by force and decree. He has exacerbated regional and ethnic tensions in a few short months. Way to go Evo...
Posted by: Galloglass at September 8, 2006 03:57 PM
Here's an interesting op-ed from El Deber: Sorry for the long post...
Conspirando contra Evo
Javier Paz García
El presidente de la República, Evo Morales, viene diciendo casi desde el inicio de su mandato constitucional que hay sectores que conspiran contra él y su Gobierno. Hace poco presentó pruebas irrefutables de que, en efecto, existe una conspiración en contra de Evo.
Tenemos un Presidente que ha acusado indiscriminadamente a todo y a todos de conspirar contra el Gobierno, sin haber presentado nunca una sola mísera prueba para respaldar tales acusaciones; un Presidente que en vez de gobernar el país ha dedicado sus energías a dividir la nación mediante discursos demagógicos llenos de odio, revanchismo y mentiras; un Presidente que atenta cuanto puede contra las instituciones republicanas, comenzando con las Fuerzas Armadas, en el afán de ubicar en puestos de gobierno a sus obsecuentes seguidores; un Presidente que ha promovido la lucha de clases y no la unión y la cooperación entre éstas; un Presidente que ha exacerbado el enfrentamiento entre regiones a un nivel que yo no había visto hasta ahora; un Presidente que amenaza cerrar el Poder Legislativo y que se ha puesto por encima de la ley de la nación y del Congreso Nacional; un Presidente que pretende alterar el rol que el Congreso y el pueblo le han dado a la Asamblea Constituyente, con el único propósito de satisfacer sus ansias totalitarias; un Presidente que ha llevado a la democracia a sus niveles más débiles desde que ésta se reinició a comienzos de los años 80; un Presidente cuyo gobierno tiene como política oficial, públicamente anunciada y repetida en cada acción y discurso que Santa Cruz está mejor sin cruceños, que los cruceños son oligarcas culpables de todos los males de la patria y que hay que acabar con éstos a toda costa; un Presidente que sataniza a todo aquél que se opone a él; un Presidente que gobierna sólo para aymaras y quechuas en detrimento de todos los demás y que toma decisiones no basado en el sentido común, sino en sus rencores, complejos y resentimientos. Por esto y por cosas que la memoria y la mesura me obligan a omitir es que concluyo que Evo Morales Ayma, teniendo una oportunidad tal vez única de sacar adelante al país, habiendo comenzado con la mayor legitimidad que un presidente puede tener, siendo capaz de unir al país, ha hecho todo lo contrario: ha perdido la confianza de gran parte del pueblo boliviano, ha perdido legitimidad, ha defraudado las esperanzas de muchos, ha traicionado a la democracia y ha traicionado a la nación. En definitiva, ha sido Evo el mayor conspirador contra Evo.
Posted by: Galloglass at September 8, 2006 04:00 PM
Of course, I don't understand all that is involved, but I can report that all is calm here. the strike of four Bolivian states was calm, even though there were small incidents of disorderly conduct - nothing major. we;ll see this week if the strike has had any real affect. Much has to do the with Oil compay YPFB and whether the state will be able to take over that private company that is so important in Santa Cruz.
Posted by: mom at September 10, 2006 08:55 PM
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