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A bad day for Evo

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Evo's government has just had its first direct casualties. Two cocaleros were killed by government military & police forces after about 200 cocaleros ambushed (w/ small arms & dynamite) a task force engaged in illegal coca eradication. The confrontation also left nine members of the anti-coca task force held hostage. They've since been released in a prisoner exchange.

Posted by Miguel at 09:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Evo's approval drops, yet again

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Evo's approval ratings dropped again, according to a recent poll by Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado. Figures now put him at an approval of 52% (from a high of 81% in May) w/ a disapproval of 38% (from a low of 12% in February/March) — the honeymoon's over. Alvaro's approval ratings have also dropped to 59%. Similarly, public confidence in the constituent assembly declined to only 47% approval in September.

Posted by Miguel at 09:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

How bad is Cuba, really?

I like stats. And for a sidenote on something else, I came up w/ these numbers that really made me pause. It was on the question of Cuban defection, and whether it was really a problem. After all, is Cuba really that bad? I mean, we know people risk their lives to flee the island every year, but what else do we know?

Posted by Miguel at 02:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This has been a crazy week for me. Fall's starting in Carlisle, w/ crisp yet sunny days. But most of the time I've been playing catch-up w/ my coursework. My intro to comparative politics students took their first exam on Monday, and I've only just now gotten a few hours set aside to start grading them. I've also fallen a bit behind in my prep readings (I like to stay a week ahead), so I'll see if I can get some time today or tomorrow to get back ahead of the curve.

But last night I got to see a really interesting documentary about the birth of professional soccer in the the US. A little documentary called Once In A Lifetime about the New York Cosmos, Pele, and how everyone seems to've hated (I mean really, really hated) Giorgio Chinaglia. That was preceded by the Dickinson men's match against McDaniel College (they played a tough game, but dropped 1-0 to the visiting team).

Posted by Miguel at 09:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics academia

It's official. My dissertation defense is set for 16 October in Kalamazoo. I still have to write up a (very brief) conclusion. But the bulk of the work has been destributed. If anyone's interested, you can download the various chapters (all in .pdf format).

• Chapter 1: A short introduction to the dissertation.
• Chapter 2: The standard lit review section.
• Chapter 3: An exploration on Bolivia's "national imaginary" in the 20th century.
• Chapter 4: A description of the Bolivia's political institutions (including party system, electoral systemc, etc).
• Chapter 5: An overview of the 1985-1996 period.
• Chapter 6: An overview of the 1997-2002 period.
• Chapter 7: An overview of the 2003-2005 period.
• Chapter 8: Statistical models testing various relationships in the electoral data (a total of 50 different kinds of linear regression models).
• Chapter 9: The conclusion to the dissertation.

Eventually (and soon) I hope to edit it into a publishable book manuscript. So. I welcome any feedback and/or comments (I might mention you in the acknowledgements).

----
UPDATE: The final chapter was added 3 October.

Posted by Miguel at 06:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (8)

Technorati tag: Bolivia

Just a quick note as I recover from last night's cocktail party. But today is the anniversary of the first "grito libertario" (or "declaration of independence") in Santa Cruz, Bolivia (24 September 1810). As usualy, El Deber has a good commemorative issue. It is, of course, a big event this year.

In related news: It seems that after the constituent assembly was on the verge of a compromise solution that woudl require a 2/3 vote on most (but not all) matters, Evo (who previously said he would obey the wishes of the assembly) specificaly & publicly instructed his party to demand a simple majority for all issues. So, it looks like there'll be no compromise.

And here's a good piece of analysis on the Evo-Alvaro split from Green Left Weekly.

Posted by Miguel at 09:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Questions of civil war continue ...

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

A recent report from Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting) adds more speculation about a potential civil war in Bolivia. The think tank's latest report on Bolivia (I followed this link from Google News) cites the recent decision by Evo's government to build two new military bases, w/ assistance from Venezuela, along the Paraguayan & Brazilian borders. The project will cost an estimated $22 million to support 2,500 troops in the region.

Posted by Miguel at 12:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Evo-Alvaro update

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

The Santa Cruz blockade failed. It took less than 24 hours, it seems, for local residents to clear the three small blockades on the highway leading to Santa Cruz. Again, as with the Santa Cruz protest, different news sources reported differently. State-run radio ERBOL declared the blockade "contundente" (a powerful success). Small blockades (one w/ only five people) were reported in Yapacaní, San Julián, and Cuatro Cañadas. Ironically, government spokesmen condemned the Santa Cruz prefect (Ruben Costas) as "incompetent" for his inability to stop the feeble blockades or engage in dialogue — ignoring, of course, that elements of the central government spurred the strike.

Posted by Miguel at 08:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Predictions?

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

It's difficult to make political predictions. But I'm going to give it a shot, based on the recent news from Bolivia. Or, at least, give the idea of a possible scenario that could play out in the next few days.

Posted by Miguel at 09:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)

Alarm Will Sound

Technorati tag: Dickinson

Last night we went to see members of Alarm Will Sound perform on campus. It was really just a small brass recital program in front of a (too) small crowd. But it was really fantastic.

Notice I wrote "see" rather than hear. Don't get me wrong, the music was great. But it was a performance that's best appreciated visually. Especially when the energetic trumpet soloist played H. K. Gruber's "Exposed Throat" — which involved a) singing while playing the instrument, b) deconstructing the instrument while playing, and c) body percussion. So we heard an interesting mix of trumpet blasts with parallel vocal harmony. Or taking apart pieces of the trumpet, while playing, to alter the tones of the instrument. And, of course, stomping w/ the feet. There were other pieces, too. Including minimalist works by Scelsi & a popular Mozart tune rearranged into a whimsical conversation between a sassy french horn & a plucky piano.

If you like things like Rachel's or The Belle Orchestre, you'd have liked the show. I can't wait to see the whole 20 piece band play their own tunes.

Also, and on a completely different note, we've decided to host a cocktail party. But this will be a "theme" cocktail party in honor of the much-celebrated "diversity" among the new faculty. I've found it interesting (and I must admit a slight uncomfortable, as have other new hires) when a few (and a very few, mind you) of the older faculty become excited that there are so many new "diverse" (i.e. non-white) faculty. I've never understood why being reminded of my "differentness" is supposed to make me feel "included" — anyhow.

So we're throwing a cocktail party — er, "fiesta" — where we'll serve ethnic foods. But w/ the whimsical irony of our indie-hipster sensibilities. So it's going to be multiculturalism à la 1950s. We'll have caipirinhas (Brazilian cocktail), guacamole & salsa (for that south of the border flair), some kind of pineapple something (because anything becomes "Hawaiian" w/ pineapple), and such other drinks & appetizers. The music, must of course be a mix of Esquivel, samba, Andean panflutes (excuse me, zampoñas), and other such "world" tunes. I may even don a tweed blazer & black turtleneck combo.

Posted by Miguel at 06:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Goodbye, sleept tight

I put Annie to sleep this afternoon. K8 & I drove to the vet to hear the final prognosis. At that point, her liver (and other internal organs) had almost ceased to function. We're still not completely sure, but it looks like she suddenly (and quickly) developed at least one kind of cancer.

We'd discussed the possibility of bringing her home one last evening, let her run around in the back yard. She's always been an indoor cat, always skittish of the outdoors. But, sick as she was, about two weeks ago she ventured outside. I let her roam around the yard, then she sat outside w/ me for a bit. I was hoping to give her one last romp on real grass, before one last night in bed w/ me. Just like most of the past six years.

But it was clear she wasn't going to romp in the grass. And she seemed to be in considerable pain. So I decided it was time to let her go. It was quick, just a twitch of the nose. And she was gone.

I know several of you met her along the way. She seemed to enjoy everyone's company, and most everyone enjoyed hers. I think Sophie already misses her. I know I do.

Sleep tight. Annie (b. 8 June 2000; d. 15 September 2006).

Posted by Miguel at 11:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (16)

On the horizon?

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Lots of bad news on the Bolivia front the last few days. Let's see. After the media luna strike (which had varying levels of success & sporadic mild violence), MAS supporters have threatened to descend on Santa Cruz to "blockade" the city (as protesters often do to La Paz). While that's a ridiculous proposition (more on that below), it's a sign of increasing confrontational attitudes between the government & its supporters versus those who support the regional comités cívicos & the political opposition (primarily Podemos & the MNR).

Posted by Miguel at 11:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

My poor darling

I think Annie's dying. She's been sick now for almost a month, refusing to eat. She's now on two different kinds of liver medications, vitamin supplements, and even anti-depressants. She's been through a battery of tests, which rule out cancer (though there are still more tests that could be run). And she still won't eat. I'm at my wit's end, frankly.

If anyone has any thoughts or advice, feel free to share. I hope she gets better soon. And I'm willing to consider she might have to find a new home, one w/o so many other cats. But I'm also forced to consider the potential alternatives.

Posted by Miguel at 04:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)

Some (brief) thoughts on Carlisle

I've been blogging mostly about Bolivian politics for the past several weeks. In part, because it's a pressing concern right now, w/ very real possibility (and increasingly more probably) chance of something resembling a political civil war. But also because I've not had much time to collect my thoughts on other matters.

But this morning I'm up early, having taken Sophie to the vet to get her teeth cleaned. So I'll take a moment to catch up, before crawling back into bed for an hour or so.

Last weekend was our (K8 & I) second wedding shower, and we drove down to the DC area. We had a good time. Her family's always gracious, pleasant, and fun. I was beaten pretty solidly in racquetball by her brother. I learned to wear silly napkin hats from her grandfather. And I developed a new appreciation for Chartreuse from her uncle. All in all, a decent weekend. The only downside was that one of K8's grandmothers was in hospital, but we even got to briefly visit her.

Life in Carlisle probably deserves its own post. I kept meaning to spend an hour taking pictures, but the weather turned sour. And I spend much of my time in my office (prepping for classes & wrapping up my dissertation). But school's going well, though I have the usual worries that half my students don't seem to understand or care about (or both?!) the material we've covered so far.

I should also mention that Annie's been ill. Pretty much ever since we moved out to Carlisle (though she was starting to decline in Chicago), she stopped eating, lost about 5 lbs, and became a bag of bones. After several visits to the vet (including an over-the-weekend stay), she's now on several medications to help her serious liver problems. She's now in isolation, spending all day (alone) in the main bedroom, w/o any other cats to bother her. Her once beautiful nose is now a clump of scars, and she's even managed several deep gashes along her sides. Essentially, there's a bully in the household, and we're keeping her away from him. It's sad to say, but for her sake, I may have to find an alternate home.

Otherwise, though, I'm adjusting well to life here. It's a small place, but I like it. And the college has incredible resources. There's no "real" coffee house, which is the one big drawback, but there are lots of local pubs (my favorite so far is Market Cross).

Posted by Miguel at 08:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

All your snakes are belong to us

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Just a quick note. I was out of town this weekend (wedding engagement shower for K8 & I; we have a lovely time, btw, more later). But I tried as much as possible to keep up w/ events in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Mainly, I called my parents, who've recently moved back to the city where I spent my first nine years.

Posted by Miguel at 04:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On the brink?

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

There are regional strikes called for in Bolivia today by opponents to Evo's regime. Principally, demanding that the constituent assembly (CA) decide matters by 2/3 majority (which means MAS would have to compromise w/ at least some other parties), rather than a simple majority (which MAS by itself has). In response, Evo has mobilized the police & may or may not have (the government's signals are confusing) mobilized the military. Simultaneously, MAS supporters are mobilizing towards Sucre (the site of the CA) & the media luna departments.

My parents, from Santa Cruz, worry about potential clashes between youth brigades from the regionalist Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (UJC) v. the student-radical Grupo Che Guevara. I worry about my parents, of course. But I also worry that in the last week or two, Evo has decided to emulate Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. We'll see by day's end what happens. Who knows, it could all blow over. The leaders of the powerful pro-autonomy movement in Santa Cruz have repeatedly postponed potential confrontations (since January 2004) in hopes of compromise. But I wonder if time is running out. I wonder if Evo knows that.

My assessment? Evo can't crack down on the Santa Cruz & Tarija led autonomy movements. First, he can't use the army. Despite threats by several cabinet members to launch investigations into political opponents, the military no longer wants a political role — and the upper ranks certainly don't want a radical-left role. More to the point: A large number of the upper officer ranks (particularly in the army) come from lowland departments; similarly, many of the elite military units are almost entirely recruited from Santa Cruz and the surrounding areas. Evo could use the police, but Santa Cruz has one of the largest & most organized municipal police forces, independent of the national government and answerable only to the city's mayor (and w/ indirect ties to the UJC). The point is simply that I don't think the military is willing to use overwhelming force to "crush" a popular protest in Santa Cruz. And if Evo's supporters try to do it themselves, w/ street battles, they'll find that cruceños are definately not like paceños.

The most interesting thing, in my mind, is that Evo's openly attacking the civic groups organizing todays' protest as "political" activists. The terms "political" & "partisan" are now a derogatory slurs used to mark opponents of Evo's government. But isn't Evo a "political" & "partisan" actor himself? What worries me is the implicit assumption — always present in nationalist-syndicalist groups — that their political program is the "true way" & that opponents are engaging in mere "politics" instead. It's a dangerous dogma to believe. Especially from a political leader whose main tactic throughout the 1990s was protest marches, whether the government was willing to negotiate or not.

Posted by Miguel at 08:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)

On the brink

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

No time to get into it now (I've got morning classes to prepare for). But it's clear (to me) that Evo's government is approaching Friday's strike called in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando departments w/ a heavy hand. Various police units are mobilizing to provent the strike. The Secretary of Defense is initiating an investigation of opposition leaders so that they can be tried for sedition & treason. Heavey handed, indeed. Ironic, because Evo's reputation was based on calling regional strikes when he was in the opposition. Now, it seems, those that strike against his government are enemies of the state, not political opponents (and one doesn't compromise w/ enemies of the state, as one would w/ opponents). Things are extremely tense.

You can read more at La Razón, El Deber, and others.

Posted by Miguel at 09:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

Bolivia at an impasse

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Things are taken a dramatic turn in Bolivia in the last few days. Opposition to Evo's government (concentrated in the lowland media luna departments) is consolidating. Civic organizations in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, and Pando have decided to launch a regional strike this Friday. Joining the civic organizations, in a new "National Alliance", are both Podemos & the MNR. The opposition groups are demanding respect for the existing constitution. Not surprisingly, Evo has denounced such movements as threatening to derail the constituent assembly & defraud the popular will.

Posted by Miguel at 05:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Out of town for the weekend

Spent the weekend in Wilmington/Philadelphia. Andy played a gracious host to K8 & I, and we celebrated his birthday. We also called my other brother, Sam, whose birthday was yesterday. In the end, it was a nice, though short, little weekend trip. After all, Dickinson has classes today.

Posted by Miguel at 03:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (12)

Evo's approval ratings

Technorati tags: Bolivia politics Evo Morales

Bolivia's constituent assembly, installed earlier this month following the July elections, continues to drag on in procedural matters. What's more, local regionalist anti-governments protests (including a strike by the city's municipal employees) are adding continual tension to the already polarized political process. Then things got ugly in Sucre yesterday.

Posted by Miguel at 09:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)