Draft Outline

Chapter I Theoretical and Methodological Considerations

1. Literature Review
   1. Democracy, Democratization, and Democratic Consolidation
   2. Democracy and Political Institutions
   3. Democracy and Imagined Communities
2. Research Question, Hypotheses, Data and Method
   1. What Explains Bolivia’s Democratic Stability Until 2003 and Its Subsequent Breakdown?
   2. Hypotheses
   3. Data and Method
   4. Limitations on the Dataset
3. The Structure of the Study

Chapter II An Overview of Parliamentarized Presidentialism

1. The Presidential-Parliamentary Debate Revisited
   1. Presidentialism
   2. Parliamentarism
   3. Mixed Systems
2. Bolivia’s Institutional Design
   1. Joint-List Party Ballot
   2. Legislative Election of the Executive
3. The Change from List-PR to MMP

Chapter III Transition to Democracy

1. The Difficult Road to Democracy (1978-82)
2. The Siles Zuazo Government (1982-1985)
3. The First Democratic Election
   1. The 1985 Campaign
   2. Election Results and MNR-ADN Dominance
   3. Legislative Election of the President
   4. The Unsteady MNR-ADN Partnership
4. Concluding Remarks

Chapter IV Early Parliamentarized Presidentialism

1. The First Coalition Government
   1. The 1989 Campaign
   2. Election Results and the Three-Way Race
   3. Coalition-Building and Legislative Election of the President
   4. The Start of the Bipolar Multiparty System
2. The First Multiparty Coalition
   1. The 1993 Campaign
   2. Election Results and the Two-Way Race
   3. Coalition-Building in the Context of New Parties
   4. The Emerging Multiparty System
3. Concluding Remarks

Chapter V Later Parliamentarized Presidentialism

1. The 1994 Reforms to Bolivia’s Political System
   1. The Introduction of Municipal Elections
   2. The Change to Mixed-Member Proportional Electoral System
   3. Implications
2. The Last Hurrah of the Traditional Parties
   1. The 1997 Campaign
   2. Election Results and the Fragmented Electorate
   3. Coalition-Building with Populist Parties
   4. The New Multiparty System
3. The Collapse of the Traditional Party System
   1. The 2002 Campaign
   2. Election Results and the Collapse of the Traditional Parties
   3. The Artificial Coalition
   4. The October 2003 “Guerra del Gas”
4. Concluding Remarks

Chapter VI Conclusions and Limitations of the Study

1. Summary of Findings
2. Important Considerations for “Constitutional Engineers”
3. Limitations of the Study

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NOTES: The subsections w/in Chapters III-IV follow a basic pattern. Each election is taken individually and analyzed the same way: a) content analysis of campaign rhetoric, b) electoral data analysis, c) cabinet-level analysis, and d) an overview (or snapshot) of Bolivian politics following the election.